Es algo tarde, pero quizás no demasiado tarde para algunas ideas.
Esto es lo que me dice mi amigo ChatGPT 4o sobre las historias sugeridas por la lista de valores que publicó Expansión esta semana, potencialmente favorecidos por el fin de la guerra en Ucrania.
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### **Financials**
1. **Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI AV) – Mcap: €7bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Raiffeisen has a significant presence in Eastern Europe, including Russia and Ukraine. A resolution to the war could allow RBI to stabilize its Russian operations, potentially recover stranded assets, and reduce credit risk exposure in the region. Investors might anticipate a revival in banking activity, loan growth, and lower provisions.
2. **UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) – Mcap: €70bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: UniCredit has exposure to Russia and Eastern Europe. The end of the war would likely reduce provisioning needs for potential bad loans linked to geopolitical risk. A peace agreement could also boost economic activity in the EU, leading to increased lending, higher transaction volumes, and stronger profitability.
### **Industrials**
3. **ROCKWOOL A/S (ROCKB DC) – Mcap: €7bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: ROCKWOOL, a major insulation materials producer, could benefit from reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. Post-war rebuilding efforts would increase demand for insulation products, boosting sales and margins.
4. **Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYA ID) – Mcap: €22bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: A de-escalation of the conflict would lead to increased confidence in air travel across Europe, particularly in Eastern Europe. Lower fuel prices (if peace stabilizes energy markets) would further improve profitability for Ryanair, which operates on ultra-low-cost efficiency.
5. **Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GY) – Mcap: €8bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: A peace deal would boost demand for flights to and from Eastern Europe, especially as Ukrainian airspace reopens. Furthermore, reduced geopolitical uncertainty could lead to lower fuel prices, improving Lufthansa’s operational margins.
6. **Wizz Air Holdings Plc (WIZZ LN) – Mcap: €2bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Wizz Air, with a strong presence in Central and Eastern Europe, would be a direct beneficiary of peace in Ukraine. The company could resume flights to Ukrainian cities and see a surge in passenger demand from diaspora communities eager to return home.
### **Materials (Cement, Steel, Chemicals, and Construction)**
7. **Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GY) – Mcap: €26bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Heidelberg Materials is one of the largest cement producers in Europe. Ukraine's reconstruction will drive massive demand for cement, aggregates, and concrete. An end to hostilities would also reduce energy costs (which impact cement production heavily).
8. **Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – Mcap: €57bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Similar to Heidelberg, Holcim would be well-positioned for infrastructure rebuilding in Ukraine, as well as increased private sector construction once geopolitical risks decline. Also, stabilization in energy markets would ease input cost inflation.
9. **ArcelorMittal SA (MT NA) – Mcap: €22bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: As one of the world’s largest steel producers, ArcelorMittal would benefit from post-war reconstruction. Ukraine has historically been a steel-producing country, and a peace deal might even allow ArcelorMittal to restart or expand operations in the region.
10. **Buzzi SpA (BZU IM) – Mcap: €8bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: An Italian cement producer, Buzzi could see a demand spike in Eastern Europe, particularly if EU infrastructure funds are directed toward rebuilding Ukraine.
11. **BASF SE (BAS GY) – Mcap: €42bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: BASF has been hit hard by high European gas prices due to the war. If peace leads to a return of cheaper Russian gas or lower global energy prices, BASF’s production costs would fall, improving profitability.
12. **Evonik Industries AG (EVK GY) – Mcap: €9bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Evonik, a specialty chemicals company, would benefit from lower energy costs and improved supply chain stability. It could also gain from increased industrial activity across Eastern Europe.
13. **LANXESS AG (LXS GY) – Mcap: €2bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: LANXESS, another chemicals company, would see margin relief from reduced energy and raw material costs. Industrial activity recovery in Europe would support demand for its products.
14. **Ferrexpo PLC (FXPO LN) – Mcap: €1bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Ferrexpo is a Ukrainian iron ore producer. A peace deal would be transformational, as it would allow the company to ramp up production, restore supply chains, and increase exports to European steelmakers.
15. **APERAM SA (APAM NA) – Mcap: €2bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: APERAM, a stainless steel manufacturer, would benefit from increased demand for construction materials and automotive production as supply chain risks decrease.
### **Utilities**
16. **Enel SpA (ENEL IM) – Mcap: €2bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: Enel, a major European utility, could benefit from lower wholesale electricity prices and reduced regulatory risks associated with the energy crisis. It could also play a role in rebuilding Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
17. **Endesa SA (ELE SM) – Mcap: €23bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: A peace deal could lead to lower gas prices, improving Endesa’s cost structure and allowing it to offer more competitive energy prices in Spain.
18. **E.ON SE (EOAN GY) – Mcap: €30bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: E.ON, a German energy company, could see relief from the energy crisis, benefiting from lower gas and electricity prices. It might also gain opportunities in Ukraine’s energy sector reconstruction.
19. **Centrica PLC (CNA LN) – Mcap: €9bn**
- **Peace Rally Story**: The parent company of British Gas, Centrica would benefit from reduced wholesale gas costs, leading to improved margins in its energy retail business.
### **Summary of Key Themes**
- **Banking (RBI, UniCredit):** Relief from Eastern European risk exposure, increased lending activity.
- **Airlines (Ryanair, Lufthansa, Wizz Air):** Return of air travel demand to/from Ukraine and Eastern Europe, lower fuel costs.
- **Materials & Construction (Heidelberg, Holcim, Buzzi, ArcelorMittal, Ferrexpo):** Massive infrastructure demand from Ukraine’s reconstruction.
- **Chemicals (BASF, Evonik, LANXESS):** Lower energy costs, stabilized industrial production in Europe.
- **Utilities (Enel, Endesa, E.ON, Centrica):** Relief from high energy prices, potential roles in rebuilding Ukraine’s grid.