#60785
Re: Gestión activa
Gracias por apuntar a la conversación. Creo que es justo añadir la respuesta:
Thank you for the details. I’ll follow your order, and have taken the time to source for your efficiency, can you please do the same. I know I’m verbose, butttt it took 100 posts and the stock breaking $10/sh to finally get some people actually looking at numbers and providing substantive answers that truly track cash and it’s many moving pieces given the companies complexity:
Thank you for the details. I’ll follow your order, and have taken the time to source for your efficiency, can you please do the same. I know I’m verbose, butttt it took 100 posts and the stock breaking $10/sh to finally get some people actually looking at numbers and providing substantive answers that truly track cash and it’s many moving pieces given the companies complexity:
(1) Current unrestricted cash. If we’re going to make subsequent adjustments to unrestricted cash post Q3 let’s go with all the post-quarter impacts to liquidity, yes? As no press release or filing with the SEC has posted since Nov 26th, I’m working off that 6-K (Pp.9-10 under “Liquidity and Capital Resources”), LINK:
(1a) GIMI capex I am not adding or taking away any inflows/outflows relating to debt drawn, money in from Keppel, or capex paid towards Gimi conversion because I instead reference Q3 presentation which shows GLNG’s equity capex share still due in Q4 as ~$81.2mm as part of the $125mm still left through 2020E (70% of the $116mm for Q4 found on Pp.11 of Q3 pres). But note, the biggest part of equity Gimi capex due is now… so GLNG is exposed to low rates in summer as they won’t have yet had the benefit of next winter’s seasonal rates coming online. I guess they can always fixed on actual TC instead of index-linked, and essentially even-out the seasonal impact… hmm not a bad idea, or thing to ask on the upcoming earnings call… hint hint hint analysts.
(1b) Net $8mm from GMLP distribution received from Q3. We actually need to double this to $16mm since we now know GMLP is keeping the dividend constant in Q4. I will not give any further support as the margin loan is now 75% LTV… banks will either force more cash into a restricted account, or GLNG may in fact be selling as we speak (which goes to the heart of my dilution argument).
(1c) $4.5mm OneLNG receivable, no idea if there’s a subsequent payable after this offsetting it, so I give another $4.5mm credit
(1d) Deduct $17.5mm from upfront loan fees on GIMI $700mm loan
(1e) Don’t do anything with the 1mth loan to GMLP, just note how odd that is if but to help GMLP meet some sort of month end liquidity reporting requirement?!? Don’t include interest/debt paid as I included next 5 qrtly payments anyways so it’s a wash.
(1f) $4.8mm payment on distribution from Hilli LLC
(1g) Lastly don’t forget about the $9mm debt paydown to extend the Arctic loan facility found earlier on Pg. 3 under “Recent Developments”
From what I just detailed, all of the subsequent liquidity adjustments amount to ~$10.5mm outflow, so adj. unrestricted cash can basically be $240mm.
As to Hilli… thank you, you’ve been helpful as the 6-k never mentioned the $75mm release from Hilli’s LCs under “liquidity and capital resources”, and the section literally breaks out its restricted cash and letters of credit, and talks about subsequent impacts to cash. But sure enough, Pp. 11 of Q3 presentation does seem to reference Q3 free cash is $250mm PLUS $75mm. I guess this bullet point is short hand for saying some LC’s got released relating to Hili, and free cash, is really unrestricted cash? I’ll carry with me an open mind awaiting your confirmation – but please source if this is actually detailed anywhere in their 6-k filings?
(2) Golar Power – wait, can you please source why GLNG does not receive any cash flow in 2020 from Power? I just go to Pp9 of Q3 pres. a page they’ve updated many times, showing Power (2020) runrate EBITDA of $99mm and accept it at face value, but really its about implied FCF, not EBITDA.
(3) GLNG dividend. This point is all meaningless since the dividend is toast, buttttt – mgmt. clearly stated that they suspended the dividend for 2 quarters, and this was effective during Q2, and Q2 and Q3 did not receive a dividend. Therefore, the Dividend should now be made for Q4 unless this suspension is now made permanent. Look back to the May 21st dividend press release – while that dividend was physically paid out in Q2 it was with respect to the Q1 issued dividend but listed as a subsequent event without a date under Q1 filings because it hadn’t happened yet. Anyways, I was also wrong as 5 dividend payments of $15mm per quarter would really mean $75mm due not $60mm but’s this is all meaningless with dividends gone... which the same conclusion originally made in August itself was outright dismissed.
(4) TRS swap unwind. They have to buyback 3mm shares… Pp.4 of Q3 6-k… as a subsequent event to Q3 they bought back half these shares for $14.8mm draw from unrestricted cash… so we need to double this as all 3mm shares are being unwound.
(5) $150mm bridge loan – agreed they’ll obviously lever assets as they approach completion… LTV %’s on construction loans are always below LTV %’s available to a delivered project, especially one with fixed earning stream. Butttt given damage done, is $300mm (40%) upsize really palatable or best case scenario. Between upfront loan fees on a $1bn facility, paying off the $150mm bridge, $110mm margin loan (GMLP stock price sorta makes this stuck)… they’re going to need as much leverage as possible. But fine, until this week, we’ve literally been in the most open and cheapest debt capital market environments ever. Accepted again. The one shaky feeling though that I keep getting is that post WeWork and it’s damage not only to unicorn’s… is now beginning to bleed over to corporate credit which is starting to behave like residential/mortgage lending has been since ‘08. The delta between the have’s and have not’s in terms of access to such credit is massive.. and the energy/energy-linked sector is sorta ground zero. Golar must respect this and always remain in the definitive “have’s” corner from a lenders standpoint. Stock price falling pretty much straight line from $30 - $10…??? No news on Sergipe and it’s January 31st??? Is this truly behavior of someone in the have’s corner? I reckon mgmt. might be playing with more fire than otherwise widely accepted… and this is actually a complement of the highest regard - is entirely due to how well respected Troim is across the industry. His greatest strength may ultimately result in GLNG’s very undoing. It’s what allows his entity to carry more leverage than others, it’s what allows for the LNG spinoff to delay and delay and delay… or the weird TRS swap to happen in the first place, or the margin loan backed by GMLP to get less scrutiny than it would elsewhere. Buttt the other side of this coin is it can just as easily result in a series of cascading dominos, if one blinks on the other side, they all blink.
(6) LNG fleet Spinoff – but the Debt/FMV of each ship is now well above 80% LTV. These are traditional bank loan lenders who come in and play at 50-60% LTV out of the gates. The fact that it’s now >80% at time of spin, banks will require a big paydown to approve the transfer… – both an upfront fee, and large early paydown in exchange for covenant waivers for 1-2yrs (which allows for the listing, with or without new investors participating). If new money comes in, it will be massively dilutive, but if new money doesn’t banks will force GLNG to contribute far more cash. We’ve seen this story in the drybulk doldrums. Company goes to banks, gets a covenant waiver but in exchange signs an engagement letter appointing the banks to lead an equity raise. (banking fees and guarantee equity downround regardless how low it prices).
Bringing it back to the beginning:
- Adj. unrestricted cash of $240mm PLUS $250mm inflows from 5qrtrs of LTM EBITDA LESS $350mm of comprised of $125mm capex, 5qrts interest, 5qrts debt paydown, LESS $30mm TRS unwind, leaves us at $110mm by year end, with significant chance that it’s well less than this due to summer seasonal lows combined with front loaded Gimi capex schedule
- Adj. unrestricted cash of $240mm PLUS $250mm inflows from 5qrtrs of LTM EBITDA LESS $350mm of comprised of $125mm capex, 5qrts interest, 5qrts debt paydown, LESS $30mm TRS unwind, leaves us at $110mm by year end, with significant chance that it’s well less than this due to summer seasonal lows combined with front loaded Gimi capex schedule
- If Power cash contribution in 2020 is really zero… interesting… but simultaneously, if Hilli LC’s are in fact stepping down materially here and already released $75mm from restricted to unrestricted… and will continue doing so… that would have me very excited to start looking for ways into the name after we get some actual updates from mgmt. to asset sales, lng spinoff, etc. etc. etc.
@Gabriel Castro, CFA - As you weren't posting back in the August chats - I'm really not a short in the name. I love the GLNG transformational story, and love the fixed cash flows about to turn on. I wished at the time they spun the LNG fleet in March and hit whatever bid was first there because its the variable income component of their story that's making this all cloudy and not trading in line with more infrastructure type multiples and discount rates. Everything I have said is related to growing liquidity concern, because while the pure science of investing may say that since the lowest unrestricted cash will reasonably get is $110mm and their liquidity covenant is $50mm - e.g. they're safe. Investing is always both art and science - what if there's a delay, what if the margin loan gets called in, what if auditor's must write-down assets or issue a going concern letter, when do banks pre-emptively tap them on the shoulder. What if there's a totally random carnivore dinosaur or whatever eating everyone in China and it might be spreading… While the science part is black and white, the art is always grey. We can only update our best calculation of expected weighted future outcomes based on latest info at any point in time.
It is for this reason that so much of what I write is based actually in question form... it may come off as bombastic yelling, but that's usually because the other side doesn't really truly have the ability to go line-by-line... they regurgitate someone else's thesis/talking points. I total respect that you are doing work, and bringing valuable intel to the discussion.
Sorry to anyone else, but I only await his reply on this topic, won't be baited into anything else. Sorry.
