Re: Farmas USA
NVAX
Del grupo de FB. Un inversor que tiene bastante pasta metida da su opinión. Interesante:
So, I want to share with you my perspective of what I foresee. And, at the same time, I'll Address my thoughts on some of the speculation that has gone too far.
Of course, this is all my own opinion.
BANKRUPTCY
There will be no bankruptcy. There is approximately $300MM cash in the bank. The note holders only have the option to redeem for stock, and no default has occurred to cause any type of default demands! Therefore, the $300MM will last for some time, as I will spell out later. But, no bankruptcy will occur anytime soon.
INSIDER HOLDINGS
Frankly, I am sick and tired of the nonsense coming from those that keep saying this. It has been debunked. Just spend 10 minutes, go to the Novavax website, pull up the latest annual and quarterly filings and you will see that the BOD and Management have millions of shares at stake. Period. End of Story. Frankly, if it is stated one more time that they have no shares, that person will be removed from the group.
So far this week, we have seen the BOD step up and buy more shares. Bravo for them. These are Professionals, not scam artists. They work hard for their money and I trust that their buying is a very clear indication of support for the company and one of the first true signals to shareholders in the 7 years I have been here..
PHASE 3 TRIAL FAILURE
Shit Happens! Either human error or a natural phenomenon caused this catastrophe. The vaccine science has been proven many times over as very solid. Add Matrix-M and it is simply untouched. Someone or something caused An Unknown/Unknown to occur and the trial failed. Not the drug!
GO IT ALONE PART 2
With $300MM in the bank, management can get really Balsy and try a hail mary Go It Alone Strategy and spend the approximate $10,000 per subject ($120MM) and rerun the Phase 3 while moving forward with other program. By my calculations, they would have little to no money in the bank in October 2017. But, if RSV Trial Part 2 works, they will have access to any funding they want. If not, they would be bankrupt. I do not believe that management will chose this option.
LICENSE RSV FRANCHISE
Management chose a route to self-fund the Phase 3. If it would have been successful, this would have been a blockbuster company. That hope is lost. Now, the company is desperate for cash to push their major program forward. All strategic power has shifted to the 'partner'. In my opinion, Novavax just lost world-wide right to the RSV vaccine franchise. If management chooses to keep the company in tact, they will have to license the RSV-F franchise, collect up front money, milestone payments and sales royalties. But, they will have no markets in which they self serve.
SELLOUT
Again, as stated in the License section, all power has shifted to the other side. While in licensing discussions, it will be obvious that the COMBO vaccine is the true prize. So, if management is going to have to give away both RSV and Flu vaccines, what is truly left. It would be best for the 'partner' to simply acquire the entire operations.
NEXT 90 DAYS
In my opinion, all of Novavax future will be decided in the next 90 days. There is not enough money to wait until the 2017/2018 RSV season to rerun the Phase 3. So, the tough decisions will be made here shortly. All pride will be swallowed, their best effort was put forward and the attempt was unsuccessful. Now, it is time to recognize what the company can be versus what it could have been. It is not as mighty of a company as it was. No more $20 target, no more pie in the shy Novavax is the next JAZZ or REGN. Reality is this has been knocked back down to the level of an R&D biotech company who has a product or two that a big pharma can make a lot of money with.
PRICE TARGET
I have always shied away from making a price prediction as there just were too many unknowns before. Now, I will, as I see very limited options. Novavax will achieve a stock price of no more than $7.50 through either the licensing or buyout. The Go It Alone 2 strategy is too risky and just won't happen unless there is major dilution which will cost 50% or more of the company.
