Farmas USA

¿Y si hacemos una colecta y nos compramos un drone-insecto?, lo colamos por una ventana de las oficinas de Novax, y nos enteramos antes que nadie.

copio pego un post usano:

http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=4cc3b79a-3ac0-3136-b6ba-55e126a7836d&tid=1463156726555-8b09938b-6c75-4115-8771-eae428fbc5d3&tls=la%2Cd%2C0%2C3

The Financials of the Convertable Debt

Can some please take a moment to explain to us laymen who do not understand these complex financial deal that NVAX has completed. If you could "dumb" it down for me I would appreciate it. Especially the parts about why the stock is stuck in this area, what will take it back to where it was, and what will make it go screaming into the 20's where I think it should be. 

If you could include some simple math examples as well I would appreciate it. I own a significant amount of shares ( 20K @ about a $6.50 avg. ) I strongly believe in the nvax management team but just do not understand this beating. Is it all about P3 and when that comes the bond holders will drive the price to a real value?? 

Thank you in advance.

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RESPUESTA

(1) The convertible bonds are not redeemable before 2023 (cept, for instance, events like buyout). They convert to shares at $6.81 per share, but are protected down to $5.56 per share because they are given bonus shares per the table on page 60 of exhibit 1.1 in the Jan 29 filing. This means the effective cost of these are equal to 5.56 per share.

THE CAPPED CALLS:

(3) When the bonds convert, Novavax exercises the capped calls. The bonds convert at 6.81. If the stock price is above 6.81, the capped call seller compensates Novavax for the value of the stock price above 6.81 up to the cap of 9.73 -- so, up to $2.92 if the stock price is 9.73, and if the stock is higher than 9.73, the payment remains at that 2.92. The capped call seller delivers Novavax stock to pay for this: for instance, if the stock price is 10% above 6.81, 68 cents above 6.81, then the capped call seller has to deliver 9 shares of stock for each 100 shares converted (total compensation needed is 68 dollars, and the value of 9 shares of stock would be 67.41).
(4) In the event of a buyout, there may be no liability with the capped calls. It is a bit tricky, but, for instance, if the stock price is $6 and they announce a buyout at $10, the capped calls are simply voided.
(5) So -- the capped call sellers need shares to back up this deal, or an ability to get them if needed. The max number of shares the capped call seller would need is when the stock is 9.73 exactly, which is a liability of $2.92 per share converted. If the stock is 9.73 then, the capped call seller needs to deliver shares in the amount of (2.92 divided by 9.73) 0.30 shares per 1 share converted, or 30 shares per 100 shares converted. For the 44 million shares potential converted, this would be a max liability of delivering about 13.2 millions shares. Oh, if the stock is 20 at the time, they need to deliver (2.92 divided by 20) just 0.14 shares per one share converted -- a lower total liability of 5 million shares to cover the 44 million converted.
(6) Number 5 above might explain why the pps is being held!!!!!
(7) There are conditions in capped calls where the calls are just voided (buyout), or when the settlement might be made in cash, not shares.

Maybe we will see in this quarter's and the next quarters filings info which sheds light on players in the deal. I think the capped call sellers try to hedge the liability will contracts for shares (basically an off-maket call deal -- wow, the first time ever I might agree with xmonte on OTC call deals!).

Finally, yes, I believe the pps may be held till we see RSV data. Sadly, the Big Guys might be close to or in the room when the data is unblinded.......
 

NVAX

Lo dejo aqui para leerlo luego con calma, a ver si lo entiendo de una p vez

jajaj con ese prototipo mal vamos o no tiene buen camuflaje 😄😄

buena traduccion te vas a pegar pal cuerpo vamos a tener que pagarte un sueldo por todas estas informaciones NVAX

ganar pasta esta bien, hacerlo en grupo mejor aun. Con eso vale ;)

intentemos primero no salir trasquilados ...

NVAX

Gracias Framus por todo lo que aportas de forma altruista, por lo menos a mi me tranquiliza mucho estar invertido en Nvax.

Por cierto, no os olvidéis de una variable más para gestionar la estrategia de vuestras inversiones en el Nasdaq este año y esa es que es año de elecciones en USA. Por suerte los resultados del fase 3 se presentarán antes así que esa es otra buena razón para vender después de resultados (para los que quieran aguantar las acciones hasta ese momento)

Nvax

asi es, esa es otra ...joer macho, es que estamos rodeados por un tiempo limite :(