Esta es la visión que tenía JPM tras los resultados de Q3 en Nov'25. Our Take: Last night, Grifols reported Q3’25 results and hosted a results call. On Q3’25, Grifols reported Revenues of €1,865m c.1% ahead of Company Consensus at €1,849m, and Adj. EBITDA of €482m (25.8% margin), c.3% ahead of Company Consensus at €466m (25.2% margin). Growth continued to be driven by Biopharma at 10.9% LC, with strong momentum in IG at 18% LC in the quarter. For FY’25 Guidance, at FX rates assumed at the CMD in February 2025 (EUR:USD 1.04), Grifols increased its Revenue guide to €7,600m+ (previously €7,550m-7,600m), reiterated its Adj. EBITDA guide for €1,875-1,925m and increased its FCR pre M&A/pre-dividends to €400-425m (previously €350- 400m). However, at current rates, it guided for an FX headwind of €70m on Adj. EBITDA, and a broadly neutral impact on group profit, free cash flow and leverage. Although it has not guided on the FX headwind on Revenues for the year, we estimate this could be c.€200m. On this basis, assuming Revenues of €7,400m and Adj. EBITDA of €1,830m, at the mid-point of the FX adjusted range (€1,805m-€1,855m) would imply a 2% cut to latest Company Consensus on the topline and Adj. EBITDA, which are at €7,552m and €1,860m, respectively. Grifols also highlighted that YTD performance has benefitted from phasing benefits and commented that while it expects a robust Q4’25, it will compare less favourably to PY on an absolute basis due to a partial reversal of phasing benefits at the EBITDA level and a tough prior year comp. On pipeline, Grifols has amended its BLA with PDUFA date end of December for fibrinogen to include only congenital fibrinogen deficiency (CFD) in the US, with a delay to its submission for acquired fibrinogen deficiency (AFD) so it can submit further supporting evidence. On leverage, Grifols reported a leverage ratio of 4.2x, as per their Credit Agreement, which was sequentially flat QoQ. Overall, while Grifols reported solid Q3’25 results, due to the FX related trim to guidance, and delays to the submission of fibrinogen in AFD in the US, we expect Grifols to underperform today. • Noteworthy 1 – Results: (1) Q3’25 Revenues of €1,865m c1% ahead of consensus. Q3 2025 Revenues of €1,865m were c.1% ahead of company consensus of €1,849m. Revenues included an IRA related headwind of €16m and a further €19m for Fee for Service reclassfication. Biopharma sales came in at €1,620m, were 2% ahead of JPMe at at €1,594m, reflecting strong continued momentum in IG for the quarter at 18% LC. Meanwhile, Albumin sales declined -4.5% LC in the quarter as it continued to see pricing pressures in China. Diagnostic Revenues were €147m, c. 4% behind JPMe. Biosupply sales of €39m were 3% below JPMe and Others & Intersegments sales of €60m were 3% below JPMe. (2) Adj. EBITDA was 3% above consensus, at €482m vs. consensus at €466m, with better SG&A ratio relative to JPMe. (3) Adj. Leverage ratio was 4.2x, in-line with the ratio reported at the end of Q2’25. (4) Delay to the submission of Fibrinogen for AFD in the US: While Fibrinogen is on track for approval in the EU in Q4’25 for CFD and AFD, the BLA with PDUFA date end of December in the US will only include CFD, with further data to be submitted to support approval in AFD at a later date. Grifols do not see this delay as having a material impact in the near-term. • Outlook & Guidance: FY’25 guidance: At FX rates assumed at the CMD in February 2025 (EUR:USD 1.04), Grifols increased its Revenue guide to €7,600m+ (previously €7,550m-7,600m), reiterated its Adj. EBITDA guide for €1,875-1,925m and increased its FCR pre M&A/pre-dividends to €400-425m (previously €350-400m). However, at current rates, it guided for an FX headwind of €70m on Adj. EBITDA, and a broadly neutral impact on group profit, free cash flow and leverage. Although it has not guided on the FX headwind on Revenues for the year, we estimate this could be c.€200m. • Likely changes to consensus: Assuming a c.€200m FX headwind to FY’25 Revenues to €7,400m and Adj. EBITDA of €1,830m, at the mid-point of the FX adjusted range (€1,805m-€1,855m) implies a 2% cut to latest Company Consensus on the topline and Adj. EBITDA, which are at €7,552m and €1,860m, respectively.
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