Pongo 2 visiones distintas yo me decanto por la primera hasta que la Juez no muestre un ruling contundente. Algo que hasta ahora no se ha dado desde un punto de vista que nos favorezca al 100%
Visión 1: No habrá Settlement
JPM and FDIC have nothing to lose at this point and SNHs will not admit guilt by giving up claims which will surely lead to criminal investigation. With help of the debtor, the SNHs tried what they could by giving equity WMMRC and keeping H shortfall as debt in reorganized company. They added a couple of bonuses with the litigation fund and start-up loan.
EC appeared willing to take the deal, but still wanted right to go after JPM and FDIC instead of only third parties and the debtor would not budge on that. TPS was not involved because they really did not have much of a choice and would have to ultimately accept whatever deal that was worked out with equity. They could say "no" just as they already have, but with equity on board, they would be pretty much forced to go along other than to argue absolute priority which may have altered how preferreds and commons shared in the reorganized company.
EC ultimately turned down the debtor and SNHs offer because equity would have been forced to give JPM and FDIC releases. More importantly, the EC also would have been unable to use the SNH negotiations, trading activities, and debtor behavior as a way to unravel the Judge's F&R opinion of the GSA.
Visión 2: Si no se llega a uno ¿como se sale de este lio?
So far JPM and the FDIC haven't given anything to equity and have a great deal to loose. The SNH are risking jail time for IT if they don't settle with equity. As of this moment in time there has not been any ruling on IT and no indication that the DOJ is going to investigate. BUT, when Walrath denies the POR AND she puts IT as a factor into her ruling the SNH have no way out of a DOJ investigation and they will turn states evidence on JPM/FDIC for their role in covering up the IT. The only way for all of these crooks to keep out of jail is to settle with equity. If Walrath does confirm the POR there will be an immediant appeal filed and a stay order implimented pending the outcome of an appeal. Sussman has these theifs backed into a corner on the IT charges and there is plenty of evidence that the plan is neither fair nor reasonable. So, even if there is no mention of IT in her ruling the plan will be appealed on the basis of "Fair and Reasonable". In the appeals court there will be a jury trial and the stakes rise to the level of RICO charges being filed against these criminals.
The bottom line is "Pay me now or Pay me 3X later".
