Re: Farmas USA
Mensaje de biotech2k, sus compañías preferidas para largo plazo:
https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19595&mn=1112&pt=msg&mid=18084956
The good and the bad
Someone asked me, "What are your best 3 companies that you would bet long term on?" That is an amazing question and I wanted to share the answer with everyone. I wanted to show how I evaluate my companies objectively. I am going to go over all of them just for your benefit.
1. SAGE- Sage is my top pick for long term potential. They have a CNS platform that could yield the CNS version of Celgene. This company has a science around GAGA and NMDA receptors in the brain. They have one drug up for commercial in PPD worth about $750 million in sales. They have SAGE-217 in PPD, MDD, Essential Tremor and Parkinson's Tremor. This drug could be worth at much as Revlimid. It could do $7 billion alone in MDD and tack on another $1 billion for each of the other indications. That doesn't include the rest of their early GABA and NMDA assets. The downside is the near term valuation is about double what is should be for now. That makes it hard to buy up a good position. Its about 1 year from PPD going commercial. It has to get its SAGE-217 drug through multiple phase 3 trails for PPD, MDD, Essential Tremor and Parkinson's. It still has a long road to haul before it reaches it potential.
2. GLYC - This is my second best pick. I think this science around Selectins is very underappreciated by the biotech world. It is massively discounted for its phase of development. They have a phase 3 read later this year for Vaso-Occlusive Crisis in partnership with PFE. They have a very awesome drug in GMI-1271 for AML and Multiple Myeloma. The biggest risk here isn't their data, but competition. There are so many great drugs being developed for AML that its hard to figure out where GMI-1271 will come in. I put it at about $750 million in revenues with an option of up to $1 billion if it does well in Multiple Myeloma. All of the love in this space is currently going to CAR-T. Everyone wants to believe that CAR-T will cure every Multiple Myeloma and AML patient.
3. SGMO - I would have to go with SGMO as my 3rd pick. I have been very vocal about it near term valuation being overvalued. This is one of those companies that, if their science is successful, they will change the world of biotechnology. Their IVPRP program could easily yield cures for hundreds of disease that stem from missing proteins or enzymes. The biggest risk is that CRISPR technology is far easier, faster and cheaper if it works. They also compete with a bunch of Gene Therapy companies on all fronts.
4. ALNY - ALNY is extremely overvalued right now at $13 billion market cap. Their RNAi technology is very amazing and they are the only public company to own in that space. That makes it a very crowded trade if all goes well. It makes it the house of pain if anything goes wrong. Their RNAi technology can target and silence any unwanted protein or enzymes from being made. It could yield many of therapies for a across a broad spectrum of disease. Their biggest risk it the gene therapy and gene editing companies can also do what they do in a more permanent manor. They are also risky on the valuation. I think the fair value is closer to $75 to $85 on this company.
5 EXEL - EXEL has an amazing drug in Cabozantinib that could do up to $3 billion in sales across a host of cancers. They have a second drug that is highly partnered with Cobimetinib. They are in serious need of the "what's next". They have no real pipeline beyond Cabozantinib to really excite investors. That leaves them with a huge risk of competition coming in and taking market share with new drugs. I would be a big fan of this one and it would jump a bunch in rankings if it just bought a good pipeline.
6. INCY - INCY has a great pipeline around TKI pathways with Jakafi going as high as $3 billion in peak sales. It has several other early stage pathway drugs that could help grow it into the big league. The near term growth for INCY is all around its multiple Phase 3 trials going on around Epacadostat. This is the one drug that really could catapult INCY to the next level with up to $2 billion in additional sales. First it has to get through all these phase 3 read outs over the next 12 to 18 months in a successful way. If this company begins to hit good data on these Epacadostat trials, it will be right back to $140 and then some.
7. ACAD - ACAD would be my top pick if only it had more behind Nuplazid then PDP. Here you have a company with one drug that could be worth $7 to $10 billion if all works out. That is the big problem "if it works out". They have one drug for one indication. No pipeline drugs beyond Nuplazid to show some diversification. They have several very big trials going on that could massively expand their drug to DRP and Schizophrenia, but the data has to prove out first. The investment community has valued this as a show me first company. I can't blame them since indications like Alzheimer's is the white whale of biotech. This is a company that would vault in the rankings or stock price if they even had one drug other then Nuplazid in their pipeline.
8. ABEO - ABEO is a small gene therapy company focused on very rare genetic disease. They have a great plan of going after the ones no one else is going after. They have some very impressive data across RDEB, MPS III, and CLN3. They still have a long way to go until commercial and my biggest fear is the ultra small populations. I don't know if they can price these one time therapies at prices they need to to make money. There is a lot of issues with drug pricing and these drugs would have to be very expensive. Some of these indications I doubt would make more then $10 million to $20 million. Will that even cover the development costs?
9. SGEN - SGEN has a very interesting pipeline of ADC's that target various cancer antigens. This is one of those companies that could be everything or just blow up in your face. Their ADC's can be very toxic when poorly designed. They had one last year they had to drop due to patient deaths. I really like their technology, but you have to be in constant fear of the next tragic headline.
10. ATRA - I don't have a position in ATRA. I love the science. I have gone through the data and it is a very awesome approach. They screen healthy volunteers for T-cells to fight EBV, HPV or CMV viruses and use them to kill cancers that stem from these viruses. The data has been very impressive with Objective response rates at 90%, 73% and 57% across early indications. The big issue is also patient population. Their first 3 indications around Post-Transplant Lyphoprofileration Disorders after HSCT or solid organ transplants covers only up to 3,000 patients across the developed world. If you price this therapy at the same price as KITE's CAR-T therapy of $240,000, you only get to a max possible sales of $750 million. I think the real number might be closer to $300 million unless the price can get higher. That makes its $2 billion market cap look very expensive. If you throw in the rest of the pipeline, then I could justify this market cap, but those other indications still have a lot of prove with their data.
