Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Estado de la flota de Noble, poco a poco las petroleras comienzan sus proyectos.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjkzOTI3fENoaWxkSUQ9NDA1MTk4fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Eldorado, al ser una minera, fluctua mucho sus cifras empresariales. Ademas ten en cuenta tambien todos los impairments que realizan. Yo siempre utilizo el EV sobre el Operating Income, me parece mas adecuado que el EBITDA, este ultimo nunca me ha terminado de gustar.

Y ahora viene lo mejor, que es un resultado en un entorno normalizado? A mi parecer ahi esta la clave de la inversion, y ese dato puede ser muy subjetivo y personal. En los ultimos años ha tenido Operating Incomes de 520M y en lado opuesto de -1.830M. 

Todos los datos los tienes en su pagina o en la SEC

Con los pésimos resultados de RR no perdió los 2,3$. Si los pierde ahora, mala señal.

 

New Gold es un blanco / negro: si los gramos recuperados por tonelada mejoran y aumentan la producción diaria de minado, la acción se va a 4$-5$. En caso contrario, se jodió y a ver qué pasa con la deuda.

Antes de comenzar las tares del dia ultimo comentario sobre el uranio: la produccion de uranio de EEUU en el 1Q2018 ha sido de 226.000lb, una cantidad que no es suficiente ni para abastecer un solo reactor, y en EEUU hay actualmente operando 99 reactores....

Sabido esto no hagamos ni caso a las pataletas de Trump, es solo ruido de mercado, nada mas. 

Exacto. Yo creo que tiene una subida facil si cumplen previsiones (Hannes Portman dijo en la earning call de Q1 que ya veían en abril el aumento que habían pronosticado) de produccion y AISC de 2018.

 

Y la subida desde el entorno de US$ 2.35 en el que cerró ayer hasta 4-5 es de un 100%. Si RR no defrauda yo creo que se va a hacer fácil.

De la carta trimestral de azValor:

Como siempre, en el trimestre hemos aprovechado para vender en parte (Mota, Técnicas Reunidas, Jerónimo Martins) o en su totalidad (Mas Móvil, Viscofan, Semapa) compañías que habían subido significativamente; y a la vez comprar otras nuevas (Codere, OHL y Prisa) o ya en cartera (Almirall, Acerinox) con cotizaciones más atractivas.

 

Está claro que tienen una opinión diferente de Cobas al respecto de Técnicas Reunidas

Ya no queda ni un milímetro de margen de error. En los próximos resultados trimestrales de New Gold sabremos el futuro de la acción. Si no se consolidan los mensajes de Abril del anterior CEO, malo.

Hay 2 temas claves:

 

(1) El grado o productividad recuperada de Rainy River

 

Anita Soni

Hi, it’s Anita. Good morning. A couple of questions have been answered. Another question that I had was in terms of the grades that you’re delivering right now to the mill, I thought the expectation was somewhat higher, maybe in the 1.3 to 1.4 range. Is there a reason why it’s down at the 1 gram per ton, the 1.08 in the last couple quarters?

Hannes Portmann

Yes Anita, it’s always been our expectation that for the year, we would be up in that 1.4 gram average range, but the progression of that grade profile was always scheduled to increase, so the 1.1 grams in the first quarter is in line with our plans, and as we move deeper into the pit, we get into the higher grade areas of the ore body, so that’s the nature of that sequence.

Anita Soni

So at one point this year, you should be somewhat--I’m just backing into these numbers and getting to, say, a 90% recovery rate and 21,000 ton per day, you would have to average about 1.26 for the year, so that would imply something around 1.6 at the end of the year, 1.7. Is that achievable?

Hannes Portmann

Yes, it is. We do have periods where we’re through the 1.5 range, per our plans. I also think while your 21,000 tons is of course what we will have as a nameplate capacity, as you would have seen and as I mentioned during the call, we are looking at an opportunity to increase the throughput through some minor modifications at the back end of the mill, so we see scope to actually see higher tonnage in the second half of this year, which of course then would allow for the grade to be slightly lower, and still achieve those targeted daily production rates.

Anita Soni

Yes. I mean, the 21 I was using was an average for the year - you’ve started the year at 17.5 right now, so presumably higher would have to mitigate that.

 

(2) Reconfirmar el guidance 2018

 

David Haughton

Good morning, Hannes and team. Thank you for the update. You’re sticking with your full-year guidance of 525,000 to 595,000 ounces for the year. It looks like Rainy will struggle to get to 300,000 ounces. Did you think about pulling back your guidance for the year, given the start that we’ve seen?

Hannes Portmann

Yes David, as I mentioned, I think we acknowledged that Rainy is off to a slower than planned start due to some of the downtime challenges we’ve had, but we still see scope to getting Rainy to, as I mentioned, the sort of low end to, if things go well, the midpoint of its guidance. Then I think we have to remember we have other assets, and I think New Afton sees scope to move towards the high end of its guidance, and Mesquite the same, so the consolidated picture still leaves us in a place where we’re very confident that we’ll be in that guidance range.