Hola valcoy,
Mis disculpas por la mezcla de temas que tratamos en el hilo... Para no mentir, hace muchos posts que cambiamos el título a "Mercados, y a veces algo de inversión en India", mucho más fiel a los variopintos temas de conversación que hemos ido tratando por aquí, aunque luego los títulos se hayan multiplicado.
Digamos que tal y como están las circunstancias de los mercados (que han relegado a los países emergentes hasta no sabemos cuándo), son otros los temas que van adquiriendo protagonismo. Pero aunque hayamos desfigurado bastante el hilo, la intención no ha sido nunca la de usurpar este espacio del foro, y reiteradamente hemos introducido información sobre la India.
Para volver al tema genuino, copio un artículo de hoy:
India: Economic Recovery 12-18 Months Away?
Reform-minded Narendra Modi has been in office since last May, but the Indian economy has not managed to turn the page. Corporate earnings remain weak and companies are not investing enough.
(For background information, see my yesterday’s blog “India: When Will Earnings Turn Around?”) http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/11/16/india-when-will-earnings-turn-around/
A full-blown recovery will be 12-18 months away, concluded CLSA after its 18th India Investor Forum.
Just like China, property market is the key to an economic rebound. Property sector accounts for 23% of overall capital expenditure and has deep linkages to the economy through cement, steel, construction and of course job creation.
“Mr Anuj Puri, Chairman and Country Head, India, Jones Lang LaSalle, highlighted that the residential sector will likely take another 12-18 months to recover due to various issues such as over-supply and property developer leverage,” reported analyst Mahesh Nandurkar and team, adding “weak sentiment around the property market is a key reason for the delayed economic recovery in India.”
The residential property market continues to be weak across India, with the volume falling since 2013. In the third-quarter, unit sales fell 10% year-on-year. (Ah, this sounds just like China!)
CLSA identified two problems with India’s property market. First, developers are pushing to sell their cheaper apartments, thereby affecting dollar sales. Second, Indian consumers prefer to buy completed apartments rather than waiting for developers to build the apartments first, thereby delaying new development projects. They don’t want to take “the development risk.”
For India’s property market to recover, mortgages rates need to come down, Indians need to make more money, and home prices can’t be rising so fast that they become not affordable, suggested CLSA.
Mortgage rates are already coming down after the 125 basis point cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. On average, banks reduced their mortgage lending rates by 60 basis points to 9.5%. “Further pass-through would aid affordability as every 100bp decline in mortgage rates is the equivalent of a 6% pricing cut from the perspective of housing affordability,” wrote CLSA.
As for rising income, we will have to wait.
This month, the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) fell 2.6%, the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) dropped 4.5%. Pharmaceuticals, materials and energy dragged.
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/11/18/india-economic-recovery-12-18-months-away/
---------------------------------
Me alegro de que el hilo te pareciera maravilloso. Y siento haberte molestado hablando en él de temas diferentes.
Saludos
