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Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

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Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
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Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
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#24782

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Yo no veo a nvax por debajo de 200.

Mirad esta, ha sido comprada por 4b. Tiene proyectados unos revenues para 2022 de 6millones y para 2023 de 36millones. 
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TPTX?p=TPTX&.tsrc=fin-srch

Nvax con 4b-5b este año y tiene un market cap inferior a esta empresa.
Haced cálculos.

#24783

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

trizzino se moja, en un video de antes de ayer ve 100% segura la EUA y dice que la FDA ya ha visitado Serum Institute manufacturing en la india y que esa visita fue el desencadenante de convocar la reunion del martes 7 de junio

https://www.stck.pro/video/NVAX/28889236
#24784

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

 

Cowen Reiterates $150 PT on Novavax (NVAX), Believes 'briefing documents suggest that the vaccine meets all the requirements for approval '

Cowen analyst Georgi Yordanov reiterated an Outperform rating and $150.00 price target on Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX).

The analyst comments " Overall, we believe the briefing documents suggest that the vaccine meets all the requirements for approval and we expect a positive vote at next week's meeting. As for the timing of a potential approval, the Agency does highlight that Novavax is yet to submit final manufacturing comparability data that allow for comparison between the Phase III data and the EUA product. Novavax has disclosed that the FDA has recently completed their on-site inspection of Serum's manufacturing facility in India which appeared to be one of the last gating items to approval of the CMC package. While we await management's commentary on the issues/delays related to the comparability assessment, we continue to believe that the ex-US approvals de-risk the potential EUA approval in the U.S. As for the near-term impact of the potential EUA approval, recall, as part of the OWS funding, Novavax has already committed to supplying the U.S. government with 100MM+ doses of Nuvaxovid, and, therefore, we do not expect that it will have any meaningful near-term revenue implications. However, we do believe this potential approval will remove a major overhang for the stock as it would finally allow Novavax to establish their presence on the U.S. market (as we describe below). Importantly, Nuvaxovid's third-dose booster data suggest strong protection against both major Omicron variants (BA.1 and BA.2) and the company is running Omicron monovalent and bi-valent studies that could support a strain-switch authorization ahead of the fall (topline results expected in Q3)."

https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20172509 

Cowen reitera $ 150 PT en Novavax (NVAX), cree que "los documentos informativos sugieren que la vacuna cumple con todos los requisitos para su aprobación"
El analista de Cowen, Georgi Yordanov, reiteró una calificación de desempeño superior y un precio objetivo de $ 150.00 en Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX).

El analista comenta: "En general, creemos que los documentos informativos sugieren que la vacuna cumple con todos los requisitos para la aprobación y esperamos un voto positivo en la reunión de la próxima semana. En cuanto al momento de una posible aprobación, la Agencia destaca que Novavax aún no se ha aprobado". presentar datos finales de comparabilidad de fabricación que permitan la comparación entre los datos de la Fase III y el producto EUA. Novavax ha revelado que la FDA completó recientemente su inspección in situ de las instalaciones de fabricación de Serum en India, que parecía ser uno de los últimos elementos de control para aprobación del paquete CMC Mientras esperamos los comentarios de la gerencia sobre los problemas/retrasos relacionados con la evaluación de comparabilidad, seguimos creyendo que las aprobaciones fuera de los EE. UU. eliminan el riesgo de la posible aprobación de la EUA en los EE. UU. la posible aprobación de la EUA, recuerde, como parte de la financiación de OWS, Novavax ya se ha comprometido a suministrar al gobierno de EE. UU. más de 100 millones de dosis de Nuvaxovid y, luego Por lo tanto, no esperamos que tenga implicaciones significativas en los ingresos a corto plazo. Sin embargo, creemos que esta posible aprobación eliminará un gran exceso para las acciones, ya que finalmente permitiría a Novavax establecer su presencia en el mercado de EE. UU. (como se describe a continuación). Es importante destacar que los datos de refuerzo de la tercera dosis de Nuvaxovid sugieren una fuerte protección contra las dos variantes principales de Omicron (BA.1 y BA.2) y la compañía está realizando estudios monovalentes y bivalentes de Omicron que podrían respaldar una autorización de cambio de tensión antes del otoño ( resultados principales esperados en el tercer trimestre)."

#24785

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Tendria guasa que finalmente hubiese una BO en algun momento y que el comprador fuese PFE. 
#24786

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

 

Aqui tienes un documento que me gusta rescatar de vez en cuando sobre como establecen los precios objetivos los analistas sobre empresas de biotecnologia

Os lo comparto por Google Drive, es cortito pero intenso.
 

Putting a price on biotechnology

 
#24788

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Páginas 48, 49 y 50. Los casos son de gente con patologías previas: obesos, gente con infartos previos y afecciones coronarias y hay hasta 1 acohólico. Estoy flipando en colores. 

Magnifica compra la de ayer quien se subiera al carro.

The proportion of participants with events retrieved using the SMQ Cardiomyopathy (broad and narrow) was comparable between the NVX-CoV2373 (0.5%) and placebo (0.4%) arms. In general, the proportion of participants reporting each type of event was comparable across treatment groups. However, terms specific for events of cardiomyopathy or cardiac failure were reported by nine participants in the NVX arm (0.05%) compared to two participants in the placebo arm (0.02%). The time to onset was within ~2 weeks for 5 events (56%) in the NVX arm and within 2 weeks for 1 event (50%) in the placebo arm. Both events in the placebo arm and 6 of 9 events in the NVX arm were serious, and none of the events were considered related. All participants in the NVX arm with events of cardiomyopathy or cardiac failure had a history of previous cardiac disease, obesity, or other co-morbidities, with the exception of one participant with a non-serious event of stress cardiomyopathy who had no medical history reported. The proportion of participants with events retrieved using the SMQ Cardiac failure (broad and narrow), was slightly higher in the NVX arm (0.2%) compared to the placebo arm (0.1%). However, terms specific for events of cardiac failure were reported by 8 participants in the NVX arm (0.04%) compared to 2 participants in the placebo arm (0.02%). The onset of the event reported in the placebo arm was 8 days post-Dose 2 of placebo. Of the 8 cases in the NVX arm, 6 occurred in participants with a history of congestive heart failure, 6 had time to onset within 21 days of the most recent NVX-CoV2373 dose, 6 were serious, and none were considered related. All participants had co-morbidities, including obesity. The proportion of participants with events retrieved using the SMQ Cardiac arrythmia (broad and narrow) was comparable between the NVX-CoV2373 (0.3%) and placebo (0.3%) arms. Events of atrial fibrillation heart rate increased were reported by a slightly higher proportion of participants in the NVX arm compared to the placebo arm, although the differences were small and most events of atrial fibrillation were >2 weeks following vaccination and most events of heart rate increased were the day of or shortly following vaccination, which may reflect reactogenicity.  In the post-crossover period through September 27, 2021, a total of 53/21,714 (0.2%) participants who received NVX-CoV2373 either in the pre-or post-crossover period experienced adverse events in the SOC Cardiac disorders. Of the 61 events, 40 (66%) were serious, including 3 fatal events (1 event each of cardiac arrest and myocardial infarction, and 1 event of alcoholic cardiomyopathy). The time to onset of the fatal events from the most recent NVXCoV2373 dose was 8 days for an event of cardiac arrest and >80 days for the remaining events. Three events (myocarditis, pericarditis, and bradycardia) were considered related by the investigator. Although the arm that crossed over to receive placebo is not a true comparator, given the previous exposure to NVX-CoV2373, imbalances during the post-crossover period that may reflect short-term risk interval windows were assessed. A total of 6/6,416 (0.1%) participants who crossed over to receive NVX-CoV2373 experienced events consistent with myocardial infarction compared to 7/15,298 (0.05%) participants who crossed over to receive placebo. Events in the arm that crossed over to NVX-CoV2373 had time to onset of <30 days (n=3), 31-60 days (n=1), and >90 days (n=2), compared to events in the arm that crossed over to receive placebo, which had time to onset of <30 days (n=4), 31-60 days (n=2), and >90 days (n=1), relative to the most recent placebo dose. The time to onset is comparably distributed across the treatment arms, suggesting that there is no increase in events occurring in the risk window immediately following vaccination; however, varying lengths of follow up post-crossover may limit a full assessment of temporal clustering. A review of cases retrieved using the SMQs Ischemic heart disease, Cardiac failure, Cardiac arrhythmias, and Cardiomyopathy did not reveal additional imbalances between participants who crossed over to receive NVX-CoV2373 or placebo. Additional data provided at FDA’s request in a dataset with a cutoff date of February 17, 2022, was used to assess additionally accrued AEs of cardiac events in the post-crossover period. An imbalance in the proportion of participants was observed for the terms of acute myocardial infarction (n=6/6,146, 0.09% in participants crossed over to NVX-CoV-2373 and n=4/15,298, 0.03% in participants crossed over to placebo) and coronary artery disease (n=5/6,146, 0.08% in participants crossed over to NVX-CoV-2373 and n=1/15,298, 0.01% in participants crossed over to placebo). In aggregate, terms associated with myocardial infarction were reported by 18/6,146 (0.3%) participants who crossed over to receive NVX-CoV2373 compared to 19/15,298 (0.1%) of participants who crossed over to receive placebo. The time to onset was comparably distributed among the treatment arms, as described above. The February 17, 2022, updated data reflected a cumulative total of 48 participants who received NVX-CoV2373 in the pre- or post-crossover period (n=26,106) and reported events consistent with the medical concept of myocardial infarction (n=37), myocarditis (n=3), pericarditis (n=1), and cardiac arrest (n=7). To assess for potential long-term cardiac events, events consistent with the medical concept of cardiomyopathy and cardiac failure were analyzed. A total of 22 participants reported 27 AEs, none of which were considered related, without temporal clustering noted. With the exception of stress cardiomyopathy, all participants with these events had risk factors for cardiac disease (e.g., obesity, pre-existing heart disease).  In summary, numerical imbalances were noted between the treatment arms with respect to events of cardiac failure and cardiomyopathy, including some events in close temporal proximity to vaccination. Cardiac events, including fatal events of cardiac arrest and myocardial infarction, were reported with close temporal relationship to NVX-CoV2373; however, the proportions of participants with fatal, serious, and ischemic cardiac events were generally balanced across the treatment arms for the blinded pre-crossover period, with comparable times to onset. As discussed in the Deaths section below, there was little to no information available on many of the cardiac deaths, precluding a full assessment of causality. Although it is possible that some cardiac events, including fatal events, were severe manifestations of undiagnosed myocarditis (see below), there is comparability across treatment arms in aggregate analyses of the type, severity, and temporality of cardiac events. Additionally, attribution of causality in many of the cardiac events is confounded by the presence of pre-existing conditions and risk factors. 
#24789

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

No es posible un buy out de NVAX, en mi opinión por supuesto. No os hagáis ilusiones en ese sentido. Dudo mucho que la ejecutiva de NVAX fuera a vender la empresa con el pipeline y las expectativas actuales. Aparte de eso, dudo también que haya alguna Big Pharma que esté dispuesta a pagar un precio aceptable por parte de NVAX. Es decir, que ni por un lado ni por otro existen demasiadas opciones. 
No hagáis caso a pumpers de Twitter ni de Stocktwist que no saben ni por dónde le sopla el viento.
#24790

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Estos son los datos de Australia.

https://twitter.com/whatprobability/status/1532976482712166400?t=334RcxEfWlya1fR2dmpbag&s=19

We have received a small number of reports of suspected myocarditis and/or pericarditis in people who have received the Nuvaxovid (Novavax) vaccine. After assessing these against a set of internationally accepted criteria, 3 cases were likely to represent myocarditis and 11 were likely to represent pericarditis. We are closely monitoring these reports and investigating whether there is an association between the Nuvaxovid (Novavax) vaccine and myocarditis and pericarditis. We will provide more information on this when the investigation is finalised.
#24791

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

No se puede comparar, son muy diferentes. Novavax está cotizando a estos precios entre otras cosas porque no se sabe cuáles van a ser los ingresos en los años siguientes.
#24792

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Con esos datos la miocarditis estaría en proporciones similares a spykevax y la pericarditis 3x más. 
PERO no creo que podamos sacar conclusiones válidas de aquí porque no sabemos la clase de personas que ha optado por novavax. Tal vez la mayoría de personas de los 146000 son personas con patologías y sobre todo relacionadas con corazón. Faltan estos datos para hacer una comparación equiparable.
#24793

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Yo tampoco lo veo y más sabiendo de qué pie cojea el abuelo a no ser que les ofrecieran un precio bueno.
#24794

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Sí, ya pone que tienen que hacer el estudio detallado para ver las circunstancias. Hacen falta números más grandes para poder comparar. Pero de momento los indicios apuntan a que podría no haber ventaja en este punto. Y eso afectaría a uso en <30 que era la población ideal.

La mayor ventaja sería mayor protección para variantes, que no es poco. Pero tampoco hay evidencia suficiente y como booster después de mRNA no se sabe.
#24795

Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

A esta marcha en 4 dias acaba siendo como el agua contaminada.
Ya me gustaria ver datos comparativos reales y veraces de todas las vacunas....pero me da que eso no lo vamos a ver. Todo acaba en lo mismo, intereses y dinero. La clave la dio ayer Framus, nos ha faltado el primo de zumosol para repartir hostias y protegernos de las hostias de otros.. y no hay mas. Y mi reflexion es....importara lo que diga la FDA el martes? O ira a ña figura fea del tecnico pase lp que pase con alguna maniobra retorcida a pesar de que haya una new que entendamos como buena???
Jode la de vueltas que le he dado a la cabeza a la posibilidad de malvender por 2 dias para "proteger". Mi conclusion es que mi amigo Murphy me va a joder haga lo que haga...