-Tomorrow (por el día de hoy) if any day, may be utilized as a 'further scare tactic'. Reason I think this is because there are tons of investors who do not have access to the information this board and hooohooo does. With Friday's slingshot movement and the news of 'wamu falling on jpm/fdic settlement" they (investors) may be waiting to see what happens on Monday and make decisions based on the movement they see.
More importantly, I think that 'we' as a whole are missing something that is going on behind the scenes. I think that the 3/4/2010 court hearing were everyone was in Chambers was more than just SJ being discussed. IMO no 90 minute long discussion would have been started should Rosen have said, "we have settlement on the table". That would have taken a few minutes at most not 90 minutes or so.
It is my opinion that Weil, JPMC and FDIC have determined where they are in this case and where they wish to take it. I do not believe at any time that they intended to piss of the Judge or implicate themselves on ‘unethical behavior’. It is my belief that they explained to the Judge that they did not want SJ ruled on because they have been working on a settlement. When the Judge asked, "Are you almost done?" they probably responded "getting there" or "no, not yet". So they came up with something that would allow for the Judge to delay her ruling, that something was having the 'old proposed settlement' from December thrown on the table. I do not believe this was a serious effort by the Debtors to resolve all litigation, or anyone else for that matter. The Judge IMO knew this was coming and can delay her ruling on SJ. The Judge probably made very clear as well that this offer would be rejected because Equity needs to see something. She probably further expressed her expectation on seeing ‘true valuation’. She did after all allow the EC to stand and denied the Debtors (and everyone else’s) request to disband the EC. I find it hard to believe that they were in chambers for 90 minutes explaining to the Judge what a fantastic ‘plan’ they had all agreed on and then present something like this. The Judge is no idiot and they know it. They know they have to face the EC and that the EC is not comprised of idiots. They know that the UST is involved and that he saw something previously regarding ‘extingent circumstances’. What type of circumstances could have been any worst than what we saw Friday?
It is hard for me to believe that Weil and Rosen would put their reputation on the line to the extent it appears. I know it is possible and that it sure hell appears that Weil is trying to shut out Equity, however, the posturing by Rosen saying, “this plan can vaporize if the Bondholders disagree” is telling IMO.
I am thinking the way I am now because I am trying to think out side of the box and answer the following questions:
1. Would Weil jeopardize their firm’s reputation by dismissing Equity while an EC is on board?
2. Why did the ‘chambers’ event of March 4th take 90 minutes?
3. How did the MM know that this news would be disadvantageous to equity before it was announced? (they sure wouldn’t have dropped it if Rosen said “and 52 Billion in cash to WMI”)
4. Why wasn’t Gregory Cross in the courtroom?
5. Why has the EC not put out a press release?
6. Why did the Judge not further discuss why EC was not involved?
It is very possible that I am still being overly optimistic regarding the overall scenario, however, this appalling ‘event’ leads me to believe that it is clearly TOO MUCH WOOL to really try to pull over the eyes of THJMW, EC, UST, ETC.
This did a few things:
-It delayed ruling on SJ
-Set the Groundwork for a real settlement
-Lowered Expectations for Shareholders (as a whole, not you or me)
-Freed up some shares for JPM Cronies who may have been shorting
-Put shares into specific hands
-Showed the World that this is ‘settled’ or over with no implications of JPMC or FDIC’s actions
Again, I know my post may piss some off because it is not smashing Weil as the rat he may very possibly be; however, I am not yet sold on Weil thinking they can just ignore the Judge, the EC and the UST. In my opinion there has to be something else transpiring. It was clear when Weil submitted a request to disband the EC that he was aligned with JPMC and FDIC to a ‘certain’ extent. The question is how much? Remember, why would the FDIC and JPMC just settle? There isn’t a chance in hell they would, not even if urged by legal counsel to do so. The only time they will do so is after they have made an offer, the offer is rejected and some negotiating takes place. I think many of the equity holders who read or heard Rosen’s words were in disbelief only because they forgot how negotiations take place.
Say… the EC was told there would be further delay to avoid ruling on SJ (but not given the specifics) but that a settlement that involved equity on the horizon. If that is the case and Venable filed their request to have a Shareholder meeting imagine the implications of such a move.
“You say a settlement is on the horizon, fine, if not we are going to remove the BOD”
Everyone is pissed at WMI and ready to rip the BOD out of their seats. If Weil agreed to further delay the proceedings due to an ‘internal understanding’ he may have just made a move that reflects very poorly on the current BOD and jeopardizes their positions. Most importantly if Ven did make such a move it will ensure all parties (including WMI) feel pressured to make a real offer .
I still think this settles sooner rather than later.
GLTA
~BIG
