Interesante que Philip Lane reconozca que en Europa hay una inflación generada por la demanda en ciertos sectores.
Martin Wolf le dice claramente lo que todo el mundo piensa (con razón):
"The other view is that monetary policy fuelled the flames, with a long history of ultra-loose monetary policy, followed by a gigantic monetary expansion in the early period of the pandemic. And this was then made worse by huge fiscal expansions, notably in the US. So, the central banks and fiscal authorities bear the blame for this."
Philip Lane viene a decir lo que comenté antes de "nos esperan 10 años de intereses a niveles normales del 2%". Para él es un nivel neutral, aunque en mi opinión siguen siendo intereses muy bajos. No volveremos a ver al BCE regalar el dinero en mucho, mucho tiempo... de hecho la entrevista es una sarta de excusas por parte del BCE, y si uno lee entre líneas Lane está diciendo "sí, la hemos cagado".
" The first phase for us was indeed to normalise monetary policy, to bring interest rates away from the lower bound towards something corresponding to neutral rates. We have done this. So, now we have the policy rate at around 2 per cent, which is in the “ballpark” of neutral."
" PL: US inflation is clearly more of a textbook case, in that a lot of inflation is coming from the demand side. The labour market has been hot, with a lot of vacancies, limited labour supply and so on. And it’s clear that monetary policy is working to cool down the labour market in a classic way.
We have a more complicated situation in the euro area, because a lot of the inflation is connected to a negative terms of trade shock. We have declining real incomes and falling real wages, and a big supply component to the inflation. "
De momento lucha por no perder el soporte estatico en 1,08 , si lo pierde se va a los 1,0750 , pero sino lo pierde significa que el dolar salvo rebotes poco mas esta debil , los malos datos macros no ayudan precisamente al dolar
