FGEN
Subida fuerte hoy (casi 10%) y cerca de máximos, $58. Esta es una bio que tengo tanta confianza que no sigo en tanto detalle como las otras ni tengo intención de vender nada más. Dio otra oportunidad enorme en $40 bajos en diciembre y entre unas cosas y otras no entré (me pasó igual con PIRS por debajo de $5 en noviembre, ahora cerca de $8). Biomaven, el que leí hace algo más de un año que dijo que era la bio con mejor riesgo/recompensa para los próximos años cuando estaba a $18 hace un resumen interesante:
https://twitter.com/Biomaven/status/956613972580622337
With $FGEN within sight of its all-time high, I've been asked again about my long-term views. Back when the stock was in the mid-to-high teens I publicly stated that I thought this was the best biotech risk/reward profile I'd seen in a decade of biotech investing.
Since then I've not sold any of my long-term holdings and I continue to believe it has a very favorable risk reward ratio. The market still does not appreciate the China opportunity where they have a 50:50 deal with $AZN. I predict roxadustat will have peak sales in China >$1B.
My sense is that China views roxa as something of a demonstration project for Chinese drug development - the first major foreign drug to be approved first in China. So I predict speedier approval than the expected September date and also speedier reimbursement than assumed.
I also predict roxa will show superior efficacy to epo in their very large PH III trials, just as it did in the 400 person Chinese trial. Safety should be be non-inferior to placebo and either superior or non-inferior to epo in dialysis (depends on how hard they push epo dose).
I believe pamrevlumab will be shown to be best-in-class in IPF as a monotherapy with both superior efficacy and tolerability to the other two approved drugs. The drug also has shown some efficacy in pancreatic cancer on top of gem+Abraxane. DMD data still to come.
If $FGEN plays out as I predict, I would expect 5x or better from here. If something goes badly wrong (*always* a chance in biotech) I think something like a 50% haircut is plausible. Given I believe there is less than a 50:50 shot of a bad hiccup, you can do the math yourself.
TGTX
Otra vez subida brutal de cortos, pero no para de subir... Hoy +7%. Quiero soltar una parte antes de un par de meses pero es muy jodido con esta saber el punto bueno, tenía previsto cerca de $12, a ver si llega.
ALNY
Receives EMA accpetance of MAA for patisiran
