NVAX
Constestación al post:
If I'm Big Pharma, why wouldn't I do the following: (1) Confirm with the FDA/NVAX that a Phase III trial can be initiated for this up-coming Flu/RSV season that allows for the double dose (Day 1, Day 30). Given NVAX's superlative safety profile, I would think they would allow this change. (2) As insurance, also concurrently run a Phase II trial using the M-1 adjuvant. For sure, the incorporation of the adjuvant will require a Phase II study.
So strategically, both risk and time to commercialization is minimized. If all goes well, only one year would have been lost in the race to commercialization. If a problem is encountered, another Phase III trial would be initiated one year from now with the M-1 adjuvant. In fact, I would run the Phase II trial w/M-1 adjuvant anyway so that if the results were markedly better than the successful Phase III, B/P would be positioned to then market the new and improved version. Also, it would be the perfect precursor to providing the RVS/Flu combo vaccine with the M-1 adjuvant two years later.
I get the sense most of us are tired, and are clamoring for a deal. Given the current environment which is ideally suited for acquisitions (strong B/P cash positions, low cost of capital, a compelling need to supplement pipelines, etc.), and the totality of data NVAX has amassed, it is inconceivable to me that several B/Ps would not be interested in pursuing NVAX at this time. By Round 4 in the negotiation process, I believe we would see the $4B+ offer, and a low double-digit stock price if the acquisition scenario plays out.
