Cubrir o no cubrir , this is the question...

creo que en 1,20 habrá que decidir

Jamon, creo que tu teoría tiene es absolutamente válida pues, según Kostolany, el dólar siempre se mueve en la dirección que los americanos deciden, pues ellos mandan en el mundo de las divisas. La fortaleza del dólar está haciendo mucho daño a las empresas exportadoras americanas por lo que lo devaluarán hasta donde crean conveniente.

El problema para los que todavía tenemos algún fondo en euros sin crubir ( yo todavía tengo dos de RV USA y dos de RV GLOBAL y eso que hace unos 10 días me salí, afortunadamente, de varios de RF en dólares )podemos tener ( de hecho ya lo estamos sifriendo ) una seria depreciación en los VLs. Y, como es lógico, en estas condiciones, la pregunta es hasta donde querrán depreciar el dólar.

Difícil tomar una decisión ahora mismo pero me dan ganas de salirme, al menos de los de RV USA, porque lo que podamos ganar por el suyacente, lo podemos perder por la divisa. Y eso, suponiendo que la RV USA siga revalorizándose.

Me temo que lejos de aclarar algo de este asunto lo he debido oscurecer más con mis reflexiones.

Yo cubriría. El mundo de las divisas es algo muy complicado y para qué correr ese riesgo pudiendo no hacerlo... Vivimos en Europa invertimos en euros ;)

Un saludo

Pero cubriendo la divisa también estás corriendo un riesgo. El riesgo de que el dolar se aprecie respecto del euro. Mira lo que pasó a la bolsa suiza cuando el franco suizo subió de golpe un 30% en un día ¿recuerdas? Simultaneamente a la revalorización del franco suizo las acciones de las bolsas suizas bajaron un 30%. Así que las empresas multinacionales suizas siguieron teniendo el mismo precio que el día anterior.

Para inversiones a largo plazo me parece que es muy caro pagar por cubrir la divisa. Y a largo plazo el EURUSD va oscilando y si hacemos inversiones periodicas se compensa.

Lo que sí es importante es el precio en euros de lo que vayamos a comprar, porque si durante la fase de dolar caro compramos empresas americanas tenemos que tener en cuenta lo que estamos pagando en euros, en comparación con empresas equivalentes europeas.

El dolar cae hoy ya un 1,38 vaya tela con los movimientos de las divisas...

A sumarlo a la caída general de las bolsas...en fin

Estamos recibiendo estopa por todas partes, Manu... Es lo que toca mientras no se aclare el panorama.

He pillado el pdf de BofA Merrill Lynch "Rates and Currencies Research" del 3 de junio, y leerlo consuela un poco.
Lo copio porque no se si funcionará el enlace:

http://rcr.ml.com/Archive/11522263.pdf?q=csXfXh6tIPejK8YnGrUNiQ&__gda__=1433773693_fa33df997b3db68c40e04214f8eff5e6

An extremely interesting year for European FX

EUR: Volatile path toward parity by year-end
A month ago we argued the upward EUR/USD correction —which we had expected— would be temporary and urged investors to sell the rally. Indeed, we have now seen the correction of the correction. US data has started improving, while Eurozone data surprises have just turned negative. Fed comments remain consistent with a data -driven tightening, which suggests a 2015 rate hike remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, the ECB has
continued to push against market expectations for early QE tapering, even flagging QE2 if inflation does not increase.
The market USD position is now much lighter, with investors chasing the latest USD move according to our flows analysis. Our quant analysis also points to further EUR/USD downside.
In addition, brinkmanship in Greece has started affecting markets and is posing negative Euro risks.
We continue to expect a gradual EUR/USD weakening towards parity by the end of the year. Divergence of monetary policies, as the ECB continues with QE and the Fed starts hiking rates (in September according to our call) should help weaken the Euro further in the months ahead. We have also argued the ECB is more likely than not to continue with QE after September 2016, as inflation remains below its target path.

However, we have also been arguing in recent reports that further EUR/USD weakening will be more gradual and more volatile than what took place up to 1Q. The Euro adjustment since May last year started from an overvalued level; the introduction of open-ended ECB QE in particular triggered a sharp correction.
Looking ahead, we would expect EUR/USD to move more consistently with data and relative monetary policies, suggesting a more gradual weakening. Indeed, EUR/USD currently seems to be weaker than what the data would justify, and our projections assume better US data in the rest of the year.
We also expect both the ECB and the Fed to react to any EUR/USD overshooting, as indeed they both did in recent months.
Positive risks to our EUR projections include a Fed rate hike in December or even later, and a comprehensive deal in Greece. Negative risks to our projections include Grexit scenarios and US inflation.

Enfin, veremos. Saludos

Mira también esto...

Buenos aportes Plumi, la verdad que la volatilidad de las divisas me tiene totalmente despistado...

Sds

A tí y a todos, porque se agitan más que las barcas de la feria!

Te paso parte del análisis de hace un momento de Kathy Lien:

Behind the 1% Jump in Euro

Euro was the best performing currency today, rising more than 1% versus the U.S. dollar. Better than expected German data kicked off the rally with industrial production and the trade balance rising strongly. As we mentioned in the paragraph above, other countries like Europe would welcome a strong dollar as the weakness of the euro drives economic activity. While Quantitative Easing has played a role in the region’s recovery, the much larger contribution was from the currency. We see this in today’s data – not only did the trade balance beat expectations but more importantly exports rose 1.9% when they were expected to fall by 0.4%. The decline in the dollar also contributed to the euro’s strength along with comments from ECB officials. ECB member Nowotny said the downturn in the Eurozone is over and according to Noyer, a Greek exit would not cause instability for the Eurozone. We beg to differ and see Greece as an ongoing headache for the region especially if Germany is willing to let Greece go. According to Schaeuble, if there are no reforms they are willing to let Greece exit the euro. At the same time, Greek officials continue to reject the EU/IMF proposal so clearly no meaningful progress is being made which should have been negative for the currency and yet euro traded sharply higher today. We believe that selling euros on the 1.13 handle is an attractive opportunity.

Leer más: http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/featured/is-strong-dollar-the-feds-1-problem-this-month_8290/

análisis EUR/USD de hoy, por Kathy Lien:

Should You Buy Dollars at these Levels?

With no U.S. economic reports released today, there was very little consistency in the performance of the dollar but if you are thinking about buying dollars here, we believe that current levels represent an attractive opportunity to initiate new long positions with orders to add slightly lower. To be more specific, the two-day decline in USD/JPY stopped just short of the 123.75 support level. Buying here with orders to scale in around 122.50 could be a good strategy. If you are looking to trade euros, we prefer selling EUR/USD on the 1.13 handle.

We had been looking for consolidation and profit taking in the dollar at the beginning of the week but with less than 48 hours to go before the release of U.S. retail sales, it is time for short term traders to start thinking about getting back into long dollar positions. The dollar’s long term uptrend has not changed but in the short term this latest pullback gives us the opportunity to buy the dollar at lower levels. U.S. retail sales are expected to rebound strongly after stagnating in May. We already know that auto sales were hot last month and while expectations are high, the improvement in the labor market and rise in average hourly earnings means that U.S. consumers will be coming back after taking a breather in April. Given recent reports, the Federal Reserve will most likely prepare the market for September tightening. We expect the dollar to trade higher leading up to the June monetary policy announcement and then extend its gains in the days that follow. Yellen has made it clear that she does not need to see a major increase in core prices as long as labor market slack is declining, making them confident that their inflation target will be reached.

At the same time, we don’t see a Greek debt deal for at least 2 more weeks and during this time, the country’s creditors could flex their muscle and say that they would be willing to kick Greece out of the Eurozone if they do not accept reforms. When push comes to shove, we believe that an eleventh hour deal will be reached but this can translate into more near term pain for EUR/USD.

Leer más: http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/featured/should-you-buy-dollars-at-these-levels_8300/

gracias por los aportes, muy interesantes como siempre

para los que no vamos del todo cómodos con el inglés, paso el enlace en castellano al artículo que has publicado, y que ya lo han traducido en investing

http://es.investing.com/analysis/%C2%BFdeber%C3%ADas-comprar-d%C3%B3lares-en-estos-niveles-213150

En Deutsche han analizado los efectos de la cobertura de divisa en carteras de renta variable global y bonos.

Con frecuencia, los efectos de la divisa son mayores que los movimientos de precios. El riesgo de divisa al que se enfrentan los inversores cuando invierten en euros en una cartera de de bolsa global o de bonos, puede ser significativo. El estudio revela que en 7 de los últimos 13 años, el efecto en la divisa fue mayor que el del precio de los mercados. En resumen, en esos años los inversores pudieron conseguir más ganancias (y afrontar más pérdidas) debido en mayor parte a las fluctuaciones de la divisa que a los movimientos en el precio de las acciones. Según los autores del estudio, el impacto de la divisa afectó a una amplia variedad de inversores.

Esto es la repanocha, la zona Euro a punto del colapso Griego y el Eur/usd en menos de 24h pasa de tocar 1,096 al 1,122 a estas horas. En lo que llevamos de jornada un repunte desde mínimos de +2,4%. Que venga God y lo vea....

Si algo bueno podía tener la situación para Europa de esta crisis era un euro débil...pues nada encima sale reforzado lo que hay que ver..

Bancos centrales hagan juego...!!

Toma crisis del Euro...

...pues nada en el último mes hemos pasado del 1,08 al 1,124 , o sea un -4% solo por efecto divisa para los fondos con activos en USD....