¿Es usted altamente alcista en el SP500 con este mercado?
Directo de la due diligence de Zackary
Annual Letter 2013. Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s vice chairman and my partner, and I believe both Berkshire’s book value and intrinsic value will outperform the S&P in years when the market is down or moderately up. We expect to fall short, though, in years when the market is strong – as we did in 2013. We have underperformed in ten of our 49 years, with all but one of our shortfalls occurring when the S&P gain exceeded 15%.
Annual Letter 2012. We do better when the wind is in our face.
Annual Letter 2009. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that’s likely to continue.
Annual Letter 2010. We will almost certainly produce better relative results in bad years for the stock market and suffer poorer results in strong markets. Anotación del Gran Zackary: ¿Se debe al enorme cash? -> Annual Letter 2004. Our equity holdings (including convertible preferreds) have fallen considerably as a percentage of our net worth, from an average of 114% in the 1980s, for example, to less than 50% in recent years. Therefore, yearly movements in the stock market now affect a much smaller portion of our net worth than was once the case, a fact that will normally cause us to underperform in years when stocks rise substantially and overperform in years when they fall.
En base a lo anterior, si las expectarivas del SP500 no son muy, muy, muy alcistas (>15% anual), mejor BRK.
En resumen que sería justamente al revés de cómo piensa: estando en el guano, SP500, estando en mercado caro, mejor BRK que SP500.
Por supuesto no es un consejo de compra ni de venta.
Investing is where you find few great companies & then sit on your ass - Munger