Me he encontrado este comentario en SA al respecto de Alibaba.
Let me share another perspective of Alibaba valuation via sum of parts of it's biggest businesses and some low-ball relative valuation..
1. To value Cloud, let's use recent quarter revenue $2.6 Bil, assume no growth for the next 3 quarters though we know growth is 40-50% yoy. Assign 5x sales multiple, so Cloud is valued at about $52 Bil.
2. To value Eleme, let's look at Meituan's market cap ($230 Bil). Assume Eleme is half of that even though we know they're more of equal competitors. Eleme should be at $115 Bil.
3. To value Cainiao, let's look at newly IPO-ed JD Logistics' market cap ($33 Bil). Assume Cainiao is half of that even though we know they're more of equal competitors. Cainiao would be at around $16 Bil.
4. Ant is always going to be controversial, some would give it zero value. I disagree, but let's play along and assume zero for Ant.
5. Recent quarter netcash is about $72 Bil.
Total 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5: $255 Bil.
So the last market cap of Alibaba is $603 Bil.
Let's hypothetically shave of Cloud, Eleme, Cainiao, and cash, we're left with just $347 Bil for core commerce business.
Now, let's compare that against core commerce's 12months trailing profit of $29 Bil - we can conclude that despite being so conservative with the other businesses (1, 2, 3, 4) earlier, currently the market values core commerce at just 12x PE.
Going back to no. 4. and let's try valuing Ant properly - in Feb 2021, Ant's profit for the quarter was revealed to be $2.3 Bil. Then we quadruple the figure to assume a full year profit at $9.2 Bil, and assign yet another conservative multiple of 15x PE. Ant would then be valued at $138 Bil. Adjusting for Alibaba's 30% stake in Ant, Ant should represent $44 Bil of value in Alibaba's books.
If we would redo the total of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 again (total $300 Bil) and remove this chunk off Alibaba's $603 Bil market cap again. We are now looking at 10.5x PE for core commerce.
And so ladies & gents, let that sink in for a minute.. we have not even factored growth or forward numbers. It's going to look ridiculous if I were to adjust for growth but I believe the above is sufficient to demonstrate my view. Thank you for reading to the end.
La verdad es que no puedo estar más de acuerdo pero el momentum de mercado es el que es. Mientras no gire al alza la cotización, lo mejor es esperarla.
Y por otra parte, Ant es importante pero tiene un peso muy limitado en Alibaba ..... así que el ruido que se ha visto los últimos meses ha sido mucho mayor que el impacto real que va a tener.
