Arcelor Mittal (MTS)

Hoy he vendido el 75% de mis derechos a 1,01€. No estoy nada convencido de acudir a la AK con el 25% que me he quedado, así que si cierran hoy altos los derechos mañana me quito el resto.

¿Recomendaría acudir a la ampliación de capital de ArcelorMittal?
Después de mucho sufrimiento, creo que podríamos estar en un momento de giro en la compañía por varios motivos:

Porque los 3.000 millones de euros que va a meter en la compañía los va a apoyar con otros 1.000 procedentes de la venta de activos, por lo que la situación de deuda va a mejorar
También lo ha apoyado con el Plan Action, que es un plan de recorte de gastos para que en 2020 el ebitda tenga un impacto adicional de 3.000 millones sobre lo que gana ahora que son aproximadamente 5.000 millones ebitda.
También se está viendo una mejora en el mercado del acero y del mineral de hierro. En el caso del mineral de hierro la subida desde finales del año pasado ha sido como del 27% y Arcelor había invertido mucho en este mineral antes de la crisis, por lo que le beneficia que se revalorice
También se está hablando de medida anti-dumping en el acero después de que se hayan puesto en marcha para el acero inoxidable.

Todo junto en una coctelera nos haría pensar que puede ser un buen momento y entrar para los accionistas actuales a 2,20 euros puede ser un nivel bastante atractivo.

Por si a alguien le es de utilidad, he hecho una tablita en excel con los siguientes datos:

-Precio medio “antiguo” (10€)
-Precio equivalente antiguo ampliando 100% (10 €)
-Precio equivalente antiguo realizando operación blanca (11,56 €)
-Precio equivalente antiguo vendiendo todos los derechos al 1,14 que comentaba Asturcom0 que están en EEUU (13,52 €)

Por ejemplo, con un precio medio antiguo de 10 €, los datos serían 10 €, 11,56 € y 13,52 €.

La tabla es:

P.ANT AMPL. OP.BLA VENTA DER.
6,00 6,00 6,32 6,72
7,00 7,00 7,63 8,42
8,00 8,00 8,94 10,12
9,00 9,00 10,25 11,82
10,00 10,00 11,56 13,52
11,00 11,00 12,87 15,22
12,00 12,00 14,18 16,92

Si alguien quiere los valores exactos de su precio que lo pida, :-)

Hoy se reunian en Bruselas para hablar del sector del acero, estas han sido las conclusiones:

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-804_en.htm

The Commission suggests policy measures to support the European steel sector to overcome its serious challenges, largely due to global overcapacity.

The European Commission has presented today a Communication setting out how the European steel sector can overcome its short-term and long-term challenges with the support of Member States and the EU institutions.

A joint effort is needed to overcome these serious challenges fuelled by global overcapacity, a dramatic increase of exports and an unprecedented wave of unfair trading practices. High energy costs and changing market conditions require energy-intensive industries to adapt and innovate to ensure their long-term competitiveness and sustainability.

Vice-President Jyrki Katainen, responsible for Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness,said: "We must do more to help the steel sector and other energy-intensive industries adapt, innovate and compete on the basis of quality, cutting-edge technology, efficient production and a highly skilled workforce. We now have a record level of anti-dumping measures on steel products in place and the Commission is determined to restore a global level playing field. We will take steps to further streamline our procedures but Member States must also act together and urgently adopt our legislative proposal to modernise EU trade defence instruments and make fairer trade a reality."

The Commission is already acting with determination to support the steel industry in overcoming the short-term challenges. With the Communication "Steel: Preserving sustainable jobs and growth in Europe" the Commission announces new short-term measures that will strengthen the EU’s defence against unfair trade practices, as well as longer-term action to guarantee the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of energy-intensive industries like steel:

Defence against unfair trade practices: The Commission is already imposing a record number of measures to offset the detrimental effect of dumping, with 37 anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures in place on steel products (16 of which on steel imports from China). The Commission will further accelerate the adoption of anti-dumping measures and stands ready to make additional proposals to speed up the overall procedure and improve the efficiency of the current system. It is high time to back up rhetoric with action: a swift adoption by the co-legislators of the Commission proposal from 2013 to modernise trade defence instruments is crucial to streamline procedures and increase their speed and effectiveness. Notably the removal of the so-called lesser duty rule in certain circumstances would allow imposing higher anti-dumping duties. The Commission will also propose a prior surveillance system on steel products. Prior surveillance measures are part of the EU's existing safeguard instrument and can be introduced when import trends threaten to cause injury to European Union producers.

Tackling the causes of global overcapacity: In addition to measures aiming to address global overcapacity, the Commission is tackling the underlying causes of the problem at bilateral and multilateral level. This is being done with the EU's main partners (China, Japan, India, Russia, Turkey and the United States) as well as in relevant international fora such as the OECD and the WTO. Just last week, bilateral meetings were held with China and Japan. The Commission will further reinforce this international work, in particular in the context of the G20.

Investing in future solutions and technologies for a more competitive industry: The long-term competitiveness of energy-intensive industries depends on their ability to develop breakthrough technologies in areas such as energy efficiency or carbon capture and utilisation. This requires more private and public investment in innovation, research and new technologies. At EU level, various funds are available to support the steel industry on its modernisation path. These funds include the €315 billion European Fund for Strategic Investments (which has already supported the modernisation of a steel factory), EU Structural and Investment Funds and the EU research funding programme Horizon 2020. Today's Communication lists the various options clearly. Industry should make full use of these possibilities.

Modernising the steel industry by investing in people: Maintaining a modern and competitive steel industry requires a skilled and well-trained work force. With the forthcoming New Skills agenda, the Commission will aim to build a shared commitment to invest in people and their skills in close cooperation with Member States and social partners. The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund and the European Social Fund are available to support workers and their local communities, mitigating adverse social consequences in the context of relocation.

Focused policies in areas like competition, energy, emissions trading and the circular economy will help the steel industry to thrive: Ourrevised state aid rules provide ample opportunities for Member States to support cross-border technology, research and innovation and renewable energy schemes. The proposed revision of the emission trading system, currently being discussed by the co-legislators, should be helpful for the steel sector and ensure that it gets an appropriate level of support in the context of the emissions allowance distribution. Commission policy in the areas of climate change and the circular economy are also relevant in this context.

Background

The steel industry in Europe is world-leading in certain steel product segments, represents 1.3% of EU GDP and provided around 328,000 jobs in 2015. The steel industry is also an important source of indirect employment, since it plays a significant role for many other industrial sectors such as the automotive industry. Despite the potential of the European steel sector and the significant efforts made to innovate and modernise, its competitive position on the global steel market has deteriorated in recent years. Excess production of steel in third countries such as China has increased exports, depressed prices, and given rise to an unprecedented wave of unfair trading practices, distorting the global level playing field.

The current challenges for the steel industry are serious, but they can be overcome if all players work together in a spirit of sincere cooperation. The Commission will continue to monitor the situation closely and stands ready to put forward additional measures, as necessary. There is no time to lose to preserve sustainable jobs and growth in Europe.

Lo más barato es que acudieras a la ampliación, el importe a aportar es ridículo.
Efectivamente cualquiera de esas operaciones NO computan, tendrías que hacer antes del 30 de junio una compra o venta "de verdad" de acciones. (a las malas al final del periodo compras un par de acciones y ya te valdría para ahorrarte las comisiones de toda la cartera=

Los cálculos son correctos, pero considera que aumenta tu exposición. Lo del "precio medio" es a veces engañoso a la vista además recuerda que fiscalmente NO existe.

Venta de derechos NO, ampliación NO.

Gracias por tu mensaje en primer lugar

Sé que el precio medio es engañoso, hasta cierto punto, como tú dices, pero me resulta útil para, de una forma matemática muy sencilla, hacerme una idea de cuánto necesitaría que evolucionara el valor de la acción

Otra cosa es que lo haga, evidentemente, jajajaja...

Gracias y saludos