EL 17 de febrero empezaremos a bajar irremediablemente.
TE dejo esto
We continue to expect a grind higher in equities throughout 2011 driven by strong economic underpinnings and increasing flows to US equities, both from EM and from fixed income. That being said, short dated skew has increased notably over the past month, while long dated skew has remained flat. This demonstrates that investors are increasingly becoming concerned about a near-term correction in stocks. This is supportive of the discussions that we have been having with investors who believe that they need to be invested, but are also waiting for a pullback to get longer. Although the longer term structural support is sound for equities, we believe more intermediate risks will lead to intermittent periods of volatility throughout 2011. On that basis, we expect the market to grind higher between now and late March to 1350, and then expect to see a market correction of ~7% in late March / April driven by 6 macro factors: * Discussions regarding the unwinding of QE (April)* Increasing concern regarding the debt ceiling (April)* Municipal debt calendar (March)* European refinancing calendar (April)* Margin compression (1Q earnings season - April)* EM rate hikes / measures to combat inflation (1H) These macro headwinds will all put short term upside pressure on fixed income yields and downside pressure on stocks. However, as the market becomes comfortable that the Fed's end of QE does not necessitate a rate rise, and as the economic data continues to remain robust, we believe equities will recover to higher highs of ~1400 by year end.
