Seguimiento y resultados de Microsoft (MSFT)

Este hilo es para llevar el seguimiento de la acción de Microsoft (MSFT), aprovecho para dejar lo más destacado de los resultados 4Q 2019.

Microsoft presentó ayer los resultados de su cuatro trimestre fiscal que terminó el 30 de junio.

• Los  ingresos totales de Microsoft han crecido un 12% respecto del mismo trimestre del año anterior hasta los $33,72B.
• El crecimiento de los  ingresos de Azure ha sido de un 64% en este cuatro trimestre, que ha disminuido desde el crecimiento del 89% del año anterior.

• Microsoft también estima que en el próximo trimestre las ventas del  segmento de Intelligent Cloud estarán entre los $10,3B y $10,5B, cuando se estimaba que estas estarían alrededor de los $10,1B.

Después de estos resultados sube un 2,66% en el post-market después de unos buenos resultados. Aunque parezca que hay una desaceleración en el sector cloud, en mi opinión no es preocupante en un sector cada vez más maduro y con más competidores, donde Microsoft sigue siendo el segundo gran player con un 14,6%, frente al líder Amazon Web Services con un 32,8%

Microsoft
We initiated a new position in Microsoft during the quarter. Microsoft’s sprawling software and services portfolio has sustainable competitive advantages and durable longterm growth prospects, combined with more reasonable valuation as the stock has sold off from its all-time highs due to COVID-19 disruptions. Although the Company ended the  quarter at a +9% weighting in the Russell 1000 Growth Index benchmark, we still believe
Microsoft is a worthy destination for our clients’ portfolios on an absolute basis. Microsoft has a formidable position in productivity software, with between 80% and 90% market share, thanks to the multi decade dominance of Microsoft Office in both commercial and personal end markets. Over the past several years, a substantial portion of the Officeinstalled base has converted from perpetual licenses to subscriptions, yet a still meaningful amount of Microsoft Office revenue remains on perpetual terms. 
We estimate Office 365 subscriptions could generate a two to three times uplift in revenue per user and add an incremental $20 billion in revenue if Microsoft can manage to phase out perpetual licenses over the next several years. In addition, with a cloud-based delivery model, the Company can quickly develop and add new products and services to the Office 365 suite and monetize by adding higher pricing tiers – rather than waiting years at a time for a new product cycle for on-prem deployments. Microsoft’s newfound ability to quickly develop products, helps maintain its position in the productivity market, despite smaller, fast moving competitors. For example, Microsoft Teams is the Company’s business
communication platform that was developed internally over the past few years and officially launched in 2017. Teams has already amassed over 44 million active users to date, with 12 million of those users joining in just the past few weeks, as they seek workfrom-home solutions. Microsoft's ability to develop and deploy quickly should allow the Company to continue to be in the right place at the right time.
Microsoft has done an excellent job entrenching its position as a mission-critical provider of infrastructure software and services, especially with its Azure cloud platform.
Businesses continue to move more workloads onto infrastructure as a service (IaaS) platforms, as IaaS enables more IT flexibility and has lower capital commitments, relative to on-premises hardware and perpetual licenses. Large IaaS offerings, such as Azure, also enable smaller, more sophisticated startups to be more productive, without having to maintain expensive hardware and maintenance headcount. We estimate both on-prem and new market opportunities should continue to drive healthy growth at Azure, where we expect revenues could triple over the next 5 years to between $30 billion and $40 billion, while also displaying substantially better profitability with that scale.
Last, Microsoft’s on-prem Windows server and PC businesses continue to be cash cows that have managed to grow, we estimate, at “GDP”-type rates. While these business lines do not have the secular tailwinds of cloud-based solutions, they continue to be critical investments for on-prem customers and increasingly popular hybrid IT customers. Importantly these customers represent a large installed base that Microsoft can cross-sell existing cloudbased offerings.
We initiated positions in Microsoft after the stock sold off due to a cautious update to its guidance for its Windows OEM business driven by supply chain disruptions in China related to the COVID-19 outbreak. We sold shares in Fastenal to fund the Microsoft purchase, as both have held up similarly well since the market peaked in mid-February.
Both maintain similar forward earnings multiples in the low twenties. However, Microsoft has decidedly more Company-specific growth drivers that can offset the inevitable macroeconomic headwinds that the manufacturing sector will throw at Fastenal after the collapse in oil (which was somewhat unrelated to COVID-19). We will look to continue to add to our Microsoft positions as opportunities present themselves in this volatile environment.