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Empresa alemana lider en nuevos materiales, principalmente para automoción y construcción. Imparable el crecimiento, podeis ver los ratios financios, per 11, Roe y Roic del pasado año por encima del 15 y 20%. Están en plena expansión y aumento considerable de las ventas. El trimestre anterior mejoraron los beneficios un 53% respecto al año anterior.
Ratios
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=0RB
Grafico cotización
Strong Q4 Covestro results expected as margins hold firm
19 February 2018 09:00 Source:ICIS News
LONDON (ICIS)--Covestro’s banner financial run is expected to continue with the release of its fourth-quarter (Q4) results this week, but questions still remain about how long the current pace of demand will continue for some product lines, as well as what the company will do with its growing war chest of cash.
Since it went public in late 2015, Covestro has been defying the odds. Casting out as an independent after former owner Bayer decided to eliminate the three-pillar structure that the company has historically held in favour of a stronger focus on pharma and agrochemicals, there was speculation from the start about how Covestro would fare on its own.
In spite of the examples of successful, well-managed commodity players in the US such as LyondellBasell and Westlake, analysts questioned whether a company focused on heavily-cyclical basic chemicals markets could thrive in Europe in the face of competition from lower-cost areas.
But the majority of Covestro’s divisions, which have been focused on the higher and specialty end of the commodities space, have benefited from extremely strong demand and pricing throughout much of 2018.
Third-quarter polyurethanes (PU) earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) nearly tripled year on year in 2017 to €466m as prices soared amid prevailing tight demand for toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) foam.
Third-quarter polycarbonates (PC) division EBIT rose over 15% to €167m as a higher-value product mix buoyed a 9.4% increase in selling prices.
The pace of growth in those segments eclipsed a drop in earnings for adhesives, coatings and segments, which has been a laggard for much of 2018 and saw third-quarter EBIT fall 14.9% to €97m.
Overall net income nearly doubled for the quarter to €491m.
Investment bank UBS guided in January 2016 that the company’s share price would peak at €42 apiece later that year then drop, but the rally continued to rise on the back of strong pricing and demand.
Covestro stock currently trades near €90/share in the wake of the selloff seen in public markets earlier in February.
TDI RIDING HIGH
Nevertheless, there remains an expectation that a
reckoning for the company may have been delayed long past expectations rather than avoided, with speculation at present focused around TDI, where the company is enjoying a bonanza on the back of a spate of outages across the globe.
“I think they have benefited massively from a tight supply/demand environment for all three of their main commodities,” said an industry source.
“I think that therefore they are almost at… the reverse of perfect storm.”
With BASF’s 300,000 tonne/year TDI plant expected online later this year, following substantial delays, and significant new capacities either ramping up or in the pipeline in the Middle East from Saudi Aramco’s Sadara plant in Al-Jubail and from Wanhua Chemical in Yantai, China.
These three plants are likely to increase global supply by double-digits, and Covestro has guided for substantial reduction in polyurethanes revenues as a result of that new balance to the market, according to another source.
But with new supply likely to be slightly staggered, and production curtailments ongoing, it remains to be seen exactly when the crunch will hit, or even whether it will be this year, according to the first source.
“What you can say about Covestro is that they will continue to have at least another two good quarters this year,” it said.
“I think the big debate will be is if the decline in TDI margins going to happen in Q2 [second quarter] or Q3-Q4, or will it be pushed back a little further because of the some of the curtailments in supply currently.”
MDI RESILIENT
Margins for methyl di-p-phenylene isocyanate (MDI) are not as inflated as TDI, but demand remains relatively strong, despite a slight
downward trend in pricing in February due to longer supply.
Annual demand growth for MDI is almost double that of TDI, standing at 5-6%.
Aside from the flagship 400,000 tonne/year MDI unit at Sadara, which came onstream in the summer of 2017, no new greenfield capacity is currently expected before 2020 other than Covestro's own debottleneckign at its Brunsbuttel, Germany, site, set to double MDI capacity to 400,000 tonnes/year and to be complete by the end of 2018.
Due to the absence of expected new rival capacity in the next two years, and the long lead times for construction and commissioning of new units, MDI pricing may remain relatively stable in the mid-term.
Dynamics in the market have also shifted in recent years, with a deepening production pool making the advent of new units less transformational than it once was, according to Barclays analyst Sebastian Saltz.
“Historically one of the issues was that every individual world-scale plant was a significant chunk of the global capacity, but with the total market having become larger, the increments are becoming relatively smaller,” Saltz said.
“Therefore one plant doesn't change the supply/demand balance as dramatically as before,” he added.
PC prices, another key market for Covestro, have also proven resilient on market tightness.
“Covestro has obviously benefited from tight supply in TDI during 2017, and that could obviously start to dissipate as new capacities come onstream,” said the analyst.
Having said that, demand continues relatively strong for their products, so growth in demand should help contain a reversal of the price rises that we have witnessed over the past couple of years.
BUYBACKS AND ACQUISITIONS
The level of margin growth in key product lines has swelled Covestro’s coffers far beyond market expectations, leaving the firm with a substantial war chest of ready capital.
“In June last year they were guiding for €5bn over a five-year period, I think that by the time we got to Q3 you were probably closer to €6bn, but depending on your views [on company cash flow] you might be closer to €6-7bn,” said a source.
“They are spending somewhere between €700m-1bn a year on capex [capital expenditure] at some point, so they have an embarrassment of riches,” it added.
The company cast about for potential acquisition targets last year but, with a dearth of viable prospects and a premium on chemical company valuations, management opted to funnel that cash into a share buyback as the best way to add value.
This approach met with market approval and swelling shares.
“Most people I speak to would prefer to have the cash than them going out and spending money on a bunch of businesses which they may or may not know how to run,” said a source.
The extent of the company’s windfall last year is such that it may not need to choose between the buyback programme, diversifying through M&A, according to Barclays' Saltz.
“Those options aren't mutually exclusive. At the moment they generate so much cash that even after the significant buy-back that they're undergoing, their balance sheet remains very strong and they have headroom to do acquisitions,” he said.
GREENFIELD
Irrespective of portfolio expansions, expectations are growing that the company is likely to invest in substantial new capacity in the future, a new greenfield site rather than simply debottlenecking existing assets, with MDI pegged as the likely product and US as the likely market.
“They will need to build some new capacity at some point to facilitate further growth. Given the long lead times to build any of those plants, and it's probably not going to be a long time before they need to announce something, most likely an MDI plant,” Saltz said.
The company’s Baytown site, on Texas’ Gulf Coast, has space for such a development, and the existing infrastructure there would reduce the headroom of the investment.
“Most people in the industry expect that to be North American MDI. If it is that, then they do have spare capacity at Baytown to add a greenfield but not have to put all the infra down, so it saves them couple of hundred million to $300m of capex,” a source said.
MANAGEMENT SHIFTS
Covestro also faces a transition this year in the departure of CEO Patrick Thomas, who has run the company since 2007 and shepherded it through its first years as a listed independent.
Handover is already well underway, but Thomas officially steps down on 30 September this year.
His replacement, by former Covestro CCO Markus Steilemann, is not expected to bring any substantial shifts in policy. A member of Covestro’s management board since 2015, Steilemann is said to have a good understanding of the company’s production assets, and an eye on the bottom line.
“I have heard that from other people outside the company or people who have left that [Steilemann] knows how to run PU assets and he knows how to run them at low cost,” a source said.
“I don't expect any radical change to strategy,” it added.
While a moderation of Covestro’s current banner margins is still expected, with the right conditions the company could make it most of the way through the year before a correction.
Pictured above: Covestro's site in Tarragona, Spain
Source: Covestro
Focus article by Tom Brown
Covestro triplica sus ganancias en 2017, hasta 2.009 millones
http://www.expansion.com/agencia/europa_press/2018/02/20/20180220125122.html
Strong Q4 Covestro results expected as margins hold firm
19 February 2018 09:00 Source:ICIS News
LONDON (ICIS)--Covestro’s banner financial run is expected to continue with the release of its fourth-quarter (Q4) results this week, but questions still remain about how long the current pace of demand will continue for some product lines, as well as what the company will do with its growing war chest of cash.
Since it went public in late 2015, Covestro has been defying the odds. Casting out as an independent after former owner Bayer decided to eliminate the three-pillar structure that the company has historically held in favour of a stronger focus on pharma and agrochemicals, there was speculation from the start about how Covestro would fare on its own.
In spite of the examples of successful, well-managed commodity players in the US such as LyondellBasell and Westlake, analysts questioned whether a company focused on heavily-cyclical basic chemicals markets could thrive in Europe in the face of competition from lower-cost areas.
But the majority of Covestro’s divisions, which have been focused on the higher and specialty end of the commodities space, have benefited from extremely strong demand and pricing throughout much of 2018.
Third-quarter polyurethanes (PU) earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) nearly tripled year on year in 2017 to €466m as prices soared amid prevailing tight demand for toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) foam.
Third-quarter polycarbonates (PC) division EBIT rose over 15% to €167m as a higher-value product mix buoyed a 9.4% increase in selling prices.
The pace of growth in those segments eclipsed a drop in earnings for adhesives, coatings and segments, which has been a laggard for much of 2018 and saw third-quarter EBIT fall 14.9% to €97m.
Overall net income nearly doubled for the quarter to €491m
Triplica resultados , y aún per 11, infravalorada. Se espera buen crecimiento para los próximos años debido a la fabricación de policarbonatos para coches eléctricos y materiales de construcción. Poca deuda y roe a doble dígito.
Pienso que es una buena acción
Covestro profit quadruples on higher prices
Published: Feb 20, 2018 3:01 a.m. ET
By
MARC NAVARRO
Covestro AG (1COV.XE) said Tuesday that its fourth-quarter net profit increased more-than fourfold due to higher selling prices and increased sales volumes.
The company--which was formed by the spin off of Bayer AG's (BAYN.XE) specialty plastics division--said net profit in the three months rose to 566 million euros ($702.3 million) from EUR124 million a year earlier. Sales increased to EUR3.52 billion from EUR3.02 billion, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reaching EUR879 million from EUR390 million, it said.
"We have achieved an impressive result in 2017 and significantly exceeded our overall targets," said Covestro's Chief Executive Patrick Thomas.
Covestro, which primarily produces polyurethanes and polycarbonates, said it expects volume growth in its core business to increase in the low to mid single-digit percentage in 2018. It added that it expects free operating cash flow to be significantly above the average of the last three years and Ebitda similar to that of 2017.
Covestro said it intends to pay its shareholders a dividend of EUR2.20 a share, compared with EUR1.35 last year.
El diseño de los coches del futuro
Covestro ha dibujado, a partir de materiales creativos e innovadores, una nueva línea estética para definir el vehículo del porvenir
https://www.diaridetarragona.com/economia/El-diseno-de-los-coches-del-futuro-20170929-0048.html
Covestro, nuevo miembro del DAX
20/03/2018
732
Deutsche Boerse ha decidido que
Covestro entre a formar parte del primer índice de valores alemán DAX a partir del próximo 19 de marzo debido a la regla de entrada rápida. Desde su salida a bolsa en octubre de 2015, tanto la capitalización de mercado como las acciones de Covestro han aumentado de manera continua. En 2015 Covestró entró en el índice de valores MDAX y se unió al STOXX Europe 600 a mediados de 2016.
En palabras de Patrick Thomas, CEO de Covestro AG: “Estamos realmente satisfechos por haber sido admitidos en el DAX. Supone una confirmación más del exitoso desarrollo de la compañía en los últimos años, así como del atractivo de nuestras acciones. En el futuro, Covestro ganará todavía más atención. Me gustaría dar las gracias a todos los empleados de Covestro por este gran éxito”.
Desde que salió a bolsa, Bayer AG, su antigua empresa matriz, ha ido reduciendo su participación en Covestro. No obstante, desde el 5 de marzo de 2018, el capital flotante de Covestro gira en torno al 86% y su capitalización de mercado asciende a alrededor de los 17.600 millones de euros.
De cara al futuro, Covestro continuará con su exitosa estrategia a largo plazo con el fin de generar valor. A través de productos sostenibles e innovadores, Covestro satisface las necesidades de materiales de primera calidad para dar respuesta a las grandes tendencias globales, en línea con su objetivo centrado en hacer del mundo un lugar mejor.
https://www.interempresas.net/Quimic...o-del-DAX.html
Aprovechen la correccion
Aprovechada,
Me mosquea ese per bajo en relación a otras empresas del sector. De momento no he encontrado fundamentales que lo justifiquen( El per bajo ). Ha subido mucho en dos años, quizá esté consolidando. Sigo investigando, a ver si encuentro explicaciones.
Buenos días, soy accionista de ercros y analizando el sector también me he dado cuenta de los ratios a los que cotiza, así que he decidido también compra acciones de Covestro esta mañana, aunque como comentas, también me suscita dudas su precio.
La única explicación que encuentro quizás pueda ser la salida de Bayer, que vendió hace unos días un 14% de la compañía por 2.200M. Era conocido por el mercado que el gigante alemán quería salirse, y esta última venta creo que disipa dudas en cuanta a que sólo le queda algo más de un 6% y que hasta 2020 no va a poder vender, por tanto ya no va a haber más operaciones de venta de grandes paquetes a precios de derribo. Con esta última operación se valora la compañía en algo más de 15.500M, que es un PER 7-8, o pagar 3,5 X EBITDA, cuando la media del sector puede estar alrededor de 12 en PER y 7-8 veces EBITDA, con lo que si nada se tuerce pienso que el recorrido al alza estos meses puede ser importante. Hay que tener en cuenta que la compañía salió al mercado hace pocos años por poco más de 25€/acción, con lo que Bayer ha obtenido grandes plusvalías y supongo que no le importará demasiado salirse aun con una importante prima de descuento a como cotiza el sector. Además Bayer necesita fondos para comprar Monsanto (53.000M €) y Bruselas le ha obligado a salirse de algunos negocios para poder autorizar la compra.
Un saludo
COVESTRO a 8 veces beneficios, con todo el consenso por encima
Eduardo Faus de Renta 4 Banco
| |
Capitalbolsa | 18 abr, 2018 08:52
Tras su salida a bolsa desarrollaba un perfecto canal alcista que hace unas semanas perdió, generando síntomas inciertos de cara a los próximos meses. A corto plazo ha estabilizado las caídas en un rango con soporte en 77,5 euros y resistencia en zonas de 82 euros. La ruptura de esta última referencia facilita alzas adicionales.
Es llamativo apreciarla cotizando a 8 veces beneficios estimados para este año con una deuda de 600 millones. Todo el consenso determina que debería estar valorada por encima de estos precios, siendo chocante ver cómo a pesar de las últimas caídas siguen subiendo sus objetivos.
Pues sí, pero es que me da que esas previsiones no están actualizadas, no hay más que ver los resultados de este primer trimestre, que han sido espectaculares, con fuertes crecimientos precisamente en las áreas más rentables, crecimientos cimentados sobre todo vía precios según la empresa:
Estoy viendo que preven un EBITDA 2018 de 2.800M y un beneficio por debajo de los 2.000M. Si las cosas siguen así podemos cerrar el año con 2.500M de beneficio neto y 4.400M de EBITDA, y casi sin deuda. Con solamente un PER 10 para este 2018 ó un multiplicador de EBITDA de 5-6 veces, la acción debería estar sobre los 125€/acción.