España
No te creas nada de lo que te muestren Simpson, ni tan siquiera el acertado vaticinio de Maximunae del 4% para las preferentes es seguro, TODAS LAS ACCIONES PUEDEN SER ELIMINADAS, en base al capital disponible que va menguando cada mes mas.
Many unresolved issues will have to be dealt with in mediation if there is to be a "revised" GSA that will result in a POR that will get confirmed and contain the necessary components to get the estate out of BK court. First, we need the scope of the mediation to include things like TPS, DIMEQ, releases for certain claims between the parties, certain components that the GSA currently covers, and the SNH situation - of course.
It is impractical to think that mediation will get anywhere unless two things happen:
1. JPM/FDIC must be there and be willing to "revise" the GSA to equity's satisfaction.
2. SNHs, as a group, concede whatever is necessary to prevent hearings on claims disallowment to move forward.
In both of the above, we are talking hundreds of millions into the billions that will be necessary for equity to agree to this new POR based on a "revised" GSA.
Here are some items that need to be worked out through mediation:
1. TPS - deal worked out with JPM receiving a cash settlement from JPM requiring TPS to withdraw its appeal and TPS is no longer a responsibility of WMI estate. Maybe x cents on the dollar (20-30 cents?) Risk/reward scenario whereby TPS believes that it is worth dropping appeal and that it would NOT be better off sharing reorganized estate with P and K preferreds and possibly common equity.
2. DIMEQ - deal worked out with WMI estate receiving a cash payment of x dollars for distribution (100m?) Risk/reward scenario whereby DIMEQ does not let Judge rule, WMI estate gives up remaining claims for fees associated with DIMEQ, and JPM keeps the original money set aside for DIMEQ.
3. SNHs - cannot fully protect from criminal investigation/prosecution, but must concede profits and potential gains from securities obtained from improper trading that are subject to disallowance. This will result in full WAHUQ disallowance of 575m ($36x16m shares). Also, additional x million will be kicked in from SNHs in lieu of other disallowance from TPS / preferred holdings and profits made from the trading (200-300m?)
4. WAHUQ - as with the disallowance, the Trust will only receive around 250m ($36x7m shares). This is not enough to cover interest difference for seniors since a major portion of shares were disallowed. So, the 7m remaining shares agree to pay a pro rata portion for the contractual subordination with a flat amount of x million ( 100m or about 40% of their proceeds?) leaving WAHUQ holders with about $21 per share.
5. JPM and FDIC agree to give up the tax deposit of 3.7b with the agreed upon interest now .4b, and more, if not all, of the tax refunds in exchange for full releases from WMI estate including equity. Right now JPM is getting 2.4b (3b x 80%) and FDIC is getting 840m (2.8b x 30%). That could mean more than 3b more coming to the estate. FDIC still keeps its original payment of 1.9b from JPM.
Lo mismo que te planteé dias pasados:
It is impractical to think that mediation will get anywhere unless two things happen:
1. JPM/FDIC must be there and be willing to "revise" the GSA to equity's satisfaction.
2. SNHs, as a group, concede whatever is necessary to prevent hearings on claims disallowment to move forward.
In both of the above, we are talking hundreds of millions into the billions that will be necessary for equity to agree to this new POR based on a "revised" GSA
Esta es la lotería que puede tocarle a las preferentes, pero en la mediacion no se va a tratar:
5. JPM and FDIC agree to give up the tax deposit of 3.7b with the agreed upon interest now .4b, and more, if not all, of the tax refunds in exchange for full releases from WMI estate including equity. Right now JPM is getting 2.4b (3b x 80%) and FDIC is getting 840m (2.8b x 30%). That could mean more than 3b more coming to the estate. FDIC still keeps its original payment of 1.9b from JPM.
Estamos de acuerdo pero no crees que los SNH van a colaborar para evitar un juicio que les lleve a la carcel?
Esta es mi apuesta que eso ocurra. Lo demas el 6 de octubre lo veremos.
Curiosas previsiones de valoraciones que se hacen de las acciones en el foro en inglés!!!!!! y mas dinero para las acciones preferentes. !!!Vemos el final si 4 - 5% para preferentes como se fundamenta aqui o algo mas????? jeje!!!
Rocknrolla: ¿al final cuales has pillado? ... en USA son un poco mas alagueños que en España.
Finalmente despues de analizar la situacion y partiendo de que ese 4% estimado casi esta ganado con las ultimas decisiones (no se si lo aprecio bien) las acciones ya valen ese importe actualmente, esta semana compraré unas pocas de las 2 por las que pregunté WAMPQ, WAMKQ. Las WAMUQ las descarto de momento por ser las últimas en cobrar segun comentarios. Suerte a todos.
Preparate para que cuestionen todas tus decisiones a partir de ahora por decir que entras en Preferentes... :) :) y Bienvenido a Wamu. No creo que vayas a tener que esperar 3 años para tener un buen resultado en tu cuenta corriente si las cosas salen bien... si salen mal ya me echaran a mi la culpa tiempo al tiempo.