GTHX
Sí, no pinta muy positivo el préstamo que han pillado de hasta 100M. 30M para ya y 20M si les aprueban (los otros para luego). Tampoco es una cantidad muy grande, igual con eso les vale. Tienen 240M y queman unos 30M al trimestre, con lo que aún tenían para apurar un poco las opciones. Imagino que no habrán encontrado inversores y que ha preferido esto a diluir a mercado. No tienen grandes catalizadores hasta el año que viene. Lo que has puesto, NDA e inicios de nuevos estudios, con lo que el quemado aumentará. Tiene pinta de que cuando sople el viento en contra la tirarán bien, pero el problema de financiación para una temporada lo han resuelto.
--
b2k la dejó de seguir a final de febrero, esto puso:
Booting GTHX and KURA Off my Pathways watch list. These companies are clearly not doing well. The data for GTHX was very blah after that last data read out. KURA has very small indications that really don't warrant the risk. I am removing both them from my watch list for Pathways.
Y su análisis el 13/11/2020 (con los nuevos datos le bajó la vaulación y dejó de seguir, te lo dejo por aquí por si te sirve para algo):
In Depth Analysis: GTHX
Management
I have only been following this company for a few months. I really don't know Mark Velleca very well. He seems to be a good speaker for the few times I have heard him speak. He seems to know the science well. I just can't speak to his decision making this early.
Pipeline
Trilaciclib:
SCLC (Small Cell Lung Cancer):
There are estimated to be 16,000 1st Line patients in the US
There are about 13,000 2nd and 3rd Line patients in the US
About 100% of 1st Line and 50% of 2nd and 3rd Line get EP treatment = 22,500
They showed a 66% ORR combo with EP = $1.485 billion
mTNBC (metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer):
There are estimated to be 8,000 1st Line TNBC patients in the US
About 55% of them are undergoing therapy = 4,400
They showed a 43.3% ORR response rate = $440 million
mCRC (metastatic Colorectal Cancer):
There are 43,000 patients in 1st Line and 38,000 in 2nd and 3rd Line
80% of 1st Line get 5-FU = 34,400
70% of 2nd and 3rd Line get 5-FU = 26,600
They have no data here yet, but even at 10% = $610 million
Trilaciclib is in heavy competition with 3 other CDK4/CDK6 inhibitors like Ibrance. The big question will be what level of market share they can get. I would give them 50% market share to start which cuts the number to $742 million, $220 million and $305 million. I think at this valuation the market thinks they will get a much lower market share. With 3 other drugs out there, they might only get 25% market share. That would cut these numbers in half again.
Lerociclib:
ER+ HER2- Breast Cancer:
Estimated to be about 55,000 1st Line patients in the US
Early data showed about a 16% response = $880 million
EFGR+ NSCLC:
Estimated to be 228,000 patients in the US each year with Lung Cancer
It is estimated 84% of them are NSCLC = 191,520
It is estimated about 17% of NSCLC patients have an EFGR mutation = 32,558
Early data showed about a 15% ORR = $488 million
This drug is an Oral version of Trilaciclib which means it could cannibalize most if not all of Trilaciclib sales. I cut these numbers in half to adjust for potential competition to $440 million and $244 million.
G1T48:ER+ HER2- Breast Cancer:
Estimated to be about 55,000 1st Line patients in the US
Estimated to be 34,000 2nd Line patients in the US
Early data showed a 16% ORR = $1.4 billion
This drug would go up against some already commercial competition. G1T48 would have to really distinguish itself above the already successful Fulvestrant. I give it 20% market share to start which would be $280 million.
Partners
University of Illinois:
They are licensing some technology from UIL for their G1T48 program. They have to pay low single digit royalties on any sales of G1T48 if it makes it to market.
Valuation
Trilaciclib for TNBC - $220 million * 1 for phase 1 = $ 220 million value
Trilaciclib for SCLC - $742 million * 2 for phase 2 = $1.484 billion value
Tilaciclib for CRC - $305 million * 10% for preclinic = $30.5 million value
Lerociclib for HER2 - $244 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $24.4 million value
Lerociclib for NSCLC - $440 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $44 million value
G1T48 - $280 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $28 million value
Cash = $299 million
Total Value = $2.129
