EXEL Es una buena compañía pero solo tiene un medicamento principal que además poco a poco va teniendo competencia. Va bien de pasta, está barata, pero el mercado no ve mucho crecimiento futuro y por eso está donde está.
Yo no llevo muchas, 80 cromos. La idea es comprar más si baja un 20% o así y vender al menos la mitad si lo sube.
Último análisis de b2k:
In Depth Analysis: EXEL
Management I think Michael Morrissey is a fantastic CEO. He took control of Exelixis when it was in desperate times, and he turned it all around. He built it into a very profitable small biotech company. He speaks very well and knows the science. I have not agreed with all his decisions though. I think he is too risk adverse. This has left the company with no real pipeline to drive future growth. I just don't think he has what it takes to take Exelixis to the next level.
Pipeline Cabozantinib: Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma: There are estimated about 30,000 patients in the US About 15,000 are First line 50% Market Share = 7,000 46% ORR in previously untreated RCC = $569 million About 17,000 are second line 50% Market Share = 8,500 21% ORR in second line RCC = $294 million
I think this market will be split between PD-1 and Cabozanitnib, but eventually become more fragmented as other TKI's come to market like Lenvatinib. I gave them 50% market share for RCC. If they show superior data in combo with PD-1 vs Lenvatinib, then I might be able to give them more market share. That gives me total Cabozantinib sales for RCC at $863 million in the US.
Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Estimated to be 31,500 HCC patients in the US each year 25% Market Share = 7,875 5% ORR in second line, but Disease control happened in 64% = $831 million Due to the low Overall Response rates of Cabozantinib, I gave them about 25% market share of the HCC Market. The very low response rate is bound to put off a lot of doctors, but I think there are limited options so eventually they will see Cabozantinib with its extended survival endpoints.
Radioiodine-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: Estimated 54,000 new cases of Thyroid Cancer each year Estimated that 90% of them are Differentiated = 48,600 Estimated 5% to 15% become resistant to radioiodine therapy = 4,860 ? (54% guess) on ORR = $432 million
metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma: ? on patient numbers 42% ORR Estimated $250 million until I can get better data.
Refractory Non Small Cell Lung Cancer: Estimated 228,000 cases of lung cancer in the US each year 84% of them will be NSCLC = 191,520 Starting at $250 million potential until we get more data
matastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer: Estimated 165,000 Prostrate Cancer patients each year in the US Estimated 10% to 50% of cases advance to mCRPC = 49,500 Starting at $250 million potential until we get more data
Cobimetinib: Cobimetinib is world wide licensed to Genentech. It is commercial for BRAF mutant Melanoma. It is expected to reach $790 million in peak sales. They share the US and get a royalty on Ex-US sales. I have no number in my sales for Cobimentinib as it marginal.
XL092: This is still in early clinic with no data.
Partners Ipsen: They are partnered for Cabozantinib for all areas except US, Canada and Japan.
Takeda: They are partnered for Cabozantinib for Japan.
Genentech: World wide license for Cobimetinib.
Daiichi Sankyo: They are partnered for world wide rights to Minnebro.
Iconic Therapeutics: They have a partnership with Iconic for their lead Antibody Drug Conjugate. If they exercise this option, they would pay up to $190 in milestones and a undisclosed royalty to Iconic.
Aurigene: They have a partnership for up to 6 programs. Aurigene would be eligible for up to $280 million milestones and undisclosed royalties for each program.
Invenra: They get world wide rights on up to 7 programs. They will pay up to $325 million in milestones and mid single digit royalties on these products.
GSK: They opted back in 2008 to opt out of development of Cabozantinib. That was great for Exelixis, but they still have to pay GSK 3% royalty on all Cabozantinib sales.
Valuation Cabozantinib: RCC = $855 million * 5 for fully mature = $4.275 billion value HCC= $831 million * 2 for phase 2 = $1.662 billion value rrDTC = $432 million * 1 for phase 1 = $432 million value mUC = $250 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $25 million value NSCLC = $250 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $25 million value mCRPC = $250 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $25 million value
AKBA Es competidora de FGEN. No la tengo estudiada a fondo pero es un buen contrapeso a FGEN y por eso quise pillar unas pocas a $3 que estaba bastante barata pero se me escapó. Va por detrás y queda aún un poco hasta resultados que determinarán cómo podrá competir. Desconozco si tiene algo a corto plazo pero me suena que no. Si pega otro bajón y entro ya le echaré un ojo más a fondo...
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