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Farmas USA

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Farmas USA
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#108059

Re: Farmas USA

Synergy Pharmaceuticals: The Short Covering Has Begun https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173384?source=ansh $SGYP
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Jejeje, preparen adrenalina para una semana loca si queréis seguir la saga de esta.
Lo más lógico es que después de este short squeeze que tuvimos antier, venga más temprano que tarde un Bear 🐻 raid para sacudir el árbol con vistas a ese probable y anunciado BO o partnership que tantos reclamamos aquí, así que igual me compro unas put y otras call a la vez pues aquí se gana en cualquier dirección

#108060

Re: Farmas USA

Top 25
Investing_saints

Rating de bios de Biotech2k:

Pathways:

Rating                    Total Return         Time                       Development

EXEL       4.96         +233%                    7 years                   Commercial

ARRY      4.45         +166%                    8 years                   PDUFA June 30

BPMC     4.37         +285%                    8 years                   Starting Phase 3

 

Genetics:

Rating                    Total Return         Time                       Development

ALNY      4.45         +153%                    8 years                   PDUFA August 11

ABEO      4.41         +259%                    8 years                   Starting Phase 3

SGMO    4.26         +467%                    10 years                   Phase 1

 

Antibodies:

Rating                    Total Return         Time                       Development

CTMX     4.26         +1585%                  12 years                 Phase 1

ZYME      4.02         +2062%                  12 years                 Phase 1

PIRS       4.26         +1207%                  12 years                 Phase 1

 

T cells:

Rating                    Total Return         Time                       Development

ATRA      4.41         +354%                    8 years                   Phase 3

ECYT      4.34         +896%                    8 years                   Starting Phase 3

FATE      4.06         +1284%                  12 years                 Phase 2

 

Cellular Adhesion Molecules:

Rating                    Total Return         Time                       Development

GLYC      4.41         1164%                    10 years                 Starting Phase 3

#108062

Re: Farmas USA

Top 25
Investing_saints

EXEL

Tampoco sigo todos los mensajes porque escribe muchos :S, pero no me suena (en abril sí que compró más). Sé que ha entrado o aumentado en ECYT, PIRS, SGMO y ATRA. Ha salido del todo en ACAD, INCY y SGEN.

Es muy negativo con CELG:

Who in their right mind would buy CELG? They have a $10 billion patent cliff coming up for Revlimid in just 6 years starting in 2024 and running through 2027. What do they have to make up $10 billion in sales? I fear the best days are behind CELG with this management. They wasted $2 billion on GED-301 which failed in phase 3. They spent $7.2 billion for Receptos and Ozanimod and it could be worth half what we thought. Now they went out and dropped $9 billion on JUNO; of which, they already owned about 80% of the sales from their partnership. I said it when it was up at over $125 that everything has to go perfect for CELG to survive the loss of Revlimid. Broken Company not just a broken stock.

Y en general con las grandes biotech:

The big cap biotechs are hated by the money managers. No growth, weak pipelines, and poor management. They are desperate for growth. The money is chasing small caps that  are the targets of these buy outs. No one wants to own the big caps. They are toxic. I have been telling people to avoid them like the plague.

There are a ton of value guys trying to pick bottoms in these pitiful helpless giants. All they are getting is stinky performance. You can't fight the tide of the market. Not unless you got a lot of time and willing to endure a ton of short term pain. I know all the small caps are so darn expensive already. I just hold my nose and buy. They are running up 3% , 5% or 10% a day. No one cares about big cap biotech now.

Yo no estoy tan de acuerdo con esto, creo que doctorx en SA es un buen contrapunto:

https://seekingalpha.com/author/doctorx/articles#regular_articles

Siguiendo con biotech2k, su portfolio el día 8 de este mes era:

Welcome to May

This is the worst time of year for biotech. I have been very critical of these small cap specs on valuation. They have been bid up in hopes of buy outs. Most of the ones we follow are actually worth owning long term. Recently the froth and excitement has come flowing out of this space. I have been slowly building my core positions into the selling. Sometimes, on days like today, I fear I am rushing in too fast. Then I look at my 62% cash position and I realize, I haven't even gotten to the trading positions yet. I am just building the core positions. I have limited myself to 4% as a core position in stead of my normal 5%. Many of these companies are extremely speculative yet. Here is how I stand so far.

Pathways:                                                            Genetics:

EXEL 6.33%                                                         ALNY 3.17%

BPMC 3.17%                                                        SGMO 4.22%

                                                                              ABEO 3.17%

Antibodies:                                                           T-cells:

SGEN 3.17%                                                        ATRA 3.17%

CTMX 2.11%                                                        FATE 2.11%

PIRS 1.06%                                                          ECYT 2.11%

Cellular Adhesion Molecules:

GLYC 4.22%

I have no open bids anymore. I will just call it when I see it for buying. I still think the long term chart of the XBI is telling me that the next few months will be side ways at best. 

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Pongo toda la última información que escribió sobre EXEL por si alguno le interesa:

Sobre la caída por el fallo de fase 3, aparte de lo que puse que el impacto no era muy grande:

Today's set back for EXEL is more of a trading event then an investing one. We where hoping that Cobimetinib would be the next big success for EXEL to start to diversify the pipeline beyond its blockbuster Cabozantinib. Now we have to wait a little longer. They still have several programs in the early clinic that could help. No one even talks about XL888 or the new CK1a drugs. Now they have a deal for bispecific antibodies. You can't reason with machines though. The HFT guys will have their day today.  

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Información completa:

I went over all the information from EXEL. I did a complete review of the pipeline, data and potential from the time of my first purchase last May. I have been in it officially 1 year now. Everything for EXEL comes down to Cabozantinib from my point of view. They have other programs with Cobimetinib, XL888, CS-315 and RORyt. These are all partnered excluding XL888. They have low double digit royalties and mean little to the bottom line for EXEL. They just recently in licensed two programs with StemSynergy for a CK1a pathway drug and Invenra for B-Body platform. They could be worth while if they play out well.

Everything still comes down to Cabozantinib. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. They have approval across all Renal Cell Carcinoma now which could do up to $1.2 billion in sales conservatively. They also have second line Hepatocellular Carcinoma which could be worth up to $800 million in sales. They recently had good data in Radioactive refractory differentiated Thyroid Cancer and metastatic Urothelial Cancer. I think all in Cabozantinib could reach up to $3 billion in peak sales. It still has several other indications on going.

The biggest risks to Cabozantinib is side effects and competition. They have a high rate of drop outs in Cabozantinib trials from side effects. The discontinuation rate is over 21%. Cabozantinib affects 4 different kinases in MET, AXL, VEGF and RET. The more kinases you affect, the more side effects. The new approach has been to go for clean and specific kinases and then mix and match them for each specific patient. There is also competition from checkpoint inhibitors. The PD-1 + CTLA-4 blockade has been a huge success in rescuing exhausted T-cells. There is more combination toward a kinase inhibitor + a PD-1 checkpoint over the CTLA-4 checkpoint. The CTLA-4 checkpoint is extremely toxic. There has been migration away from CTLA-4 and toward less toxic combinations.

All in, I still think EXEL is extremely cheap 10.72x sales and only .74x earnings growth. Sales for 2018 are at $621 million with 37% growth rate and over $945 million for 2019 with 52% growth rate. They have Accelerating Revenue Growth (ARG). I put fair value at $28.67. That would be at 1x growth or 14x sales.

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Notes on EXEL specific kinases

My favorite single kinase company was RXDX for single kinase companies. They had a great NTRK inhibitor with a few others in the pipeline. They got bought out last year so we have 3 new choices.

ARRY has some great single kinase prospects. Their lead combo of BRAF + MEK is doing very good in BRAF mutant Melanoma. I don't think you can go wrong with ARRY if your OK with a company that heavily uses partnerships. Not a ton of potential for ARRY since most of it goes to the partner, but still a very solid company.

BPMC is my new favorite choice. They have a lead drug in Avapritinib for GI tumors targeting PDGFa. They have had successful data in three of their drugs in PDGFa, FGFR and RET. The company is expensive at over $3 billion market cap, but not so bad compared to competitors. They could be commercial late 2019.

LOXO would be my last choice. They license their technology from ARRY and then they, in return, license it to Bayer. They just scalp a few percent in the middle. They do have some interesting assets around NTRK, RET, BTK and FGFR. Right now they have a massive premium in this space as the Hopes and Dream guys are hoping their RET data can best BPMC. I will wait and see.

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Sorry, but EXEL has to lose 5 star rating

This Failure has to matter even though it might not really affect the long term peak sales forcasts. I updated my rating on EXEL and it now scores 4.96 stars until it redeems itself with a clinical success. Here is the updated rating.

1. Management: 5 stars

- Clinical Development: 5 stars (1 breakthrough therapy drug)

- Manufacturing: 5 stars

- Financial Management: 5 stars

- Commercial Sales: 5 stars (94% Year over Year)

- Good Communications: 5 stars

2. Science: 5 stars (1 breakthrough therapy drugs)

Exelixis has a world class pathway pipeline around Cabozantinib and Cobimetinib. Cabotzantinib has breakthrough therapy designation for RCC. They have multiple ongoing trials for Cabozantinib. Cobimetinib is partnered with Genentech 30%/70% in favor of Genentech. They have an early pipeline drug in XL888. They have begun doing partnerships with smaller biotech for potential new drugs.

3. Potential: 5 stars (+259% over 7 years = 37% annual)

Cabozantinib = $2.5 billion US and Canada

Total Peak Sales = $2.5 billion * 8 P/S = $20 billion Market Cap peak

4. Financials: 5 stars

Cash = $525 million

Net Income = $115 million

5. Risks: 4.8 stars

-Diversified Pipeline: 5 stars (3 drugs in pipeline)

-Stage of Development: 5 stars (Commercial)

-Commercial: 5 stars (94% Year over Year growth)

-Secondaries: 5 stars (Profitable)

-Clinical Failures: 4 stars (IMblaze370 fialure)

Total Ranking: 4.96 stars