como siempre, con mucha info, dejo la intro
Bioinvest - MTSL 833
http://www.bioinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MTSL-Issue-833.pdf
UPDATES: ACAD, ANTH, BMRN, FPRX, INCY, XON, IONS, MDCO, NKTR, NVAX, PCRX, SGMO, ZIOP
SENTIMENT — After The Rally, The Fallout From Opdivo Lung Cancer Miss — After breaking above the 50-day moving average for the first time since last September, sector leader BIIB had both unexpected positive clinical data (SMA) and unsolicited takeover speculation (MRK, AGN). Taken together, Biogen shares drove the sector indices another leg higher before taking a pause after the disappointing surprise of BMY’s Ovdipo lung cancer results, which provided a big setback for the blockbuster drug in the hottest therapeutic class which has been driving biotech stocks over the past 3+ years. On top of the high-flying JUNO deaths setting back the CAR-T dreams a bit, the biotech stock market response was impressively resilient overall. Until the financing floodgates just opened. While several observers including us doubt BIIB’s takeover possibility (citing slowing MS franchise, miss in Lingo and risk in Alzheimer’s programs), the stock remains near its post-rumor highs – up a whopping 40% above its recent (and 3+ year) low. The NBI touched a short-term overbought condition (RSI hit 75), and a pullback after the biggest rally of the year is also not unhealthy. Megamergers, therefore, have the most impact right now and we all know that Big Pharma/Big Bio are still on a shopping spree. On the flipside, an abundance of secondary financings (led by BMRN’s ~$800 million offering) put an abrupt halt and reversed some of the recent good feelings
We cheered the sector’s breakout last Issue, but we were also cautiously optimistic since biotech fund flows had not yet followed the positive direction of stocks. There have been no recent acquisition(s), in fact, just the opposite (in the form of new stock supply) has taken some of the wind out of the sail right now. While the group has recovered a good amount of its 2016 drop – NBI is down a little more than 13% YTD – the majority of the strength remains in the large cap, relatively lower-risk companies and the average biotech stock is down more than double digits this year. Furthermore, the sector’s fund flows continue to be flat and that tells us that primarily technical investors have come back to biotech and that generalist money, if any, are rotating into the safe biotech (and possible takeover) names. Without new buyers dedicating new money to biotech, short sellers (in and out) are likely driving the overall index move. Small cap stocks, which outnumber the big ones by a log or two, are for the most part still way out of favor, too illiquid and volatile for the current state of and/or lack of institutional support. Things change daily and as of this writing the indices are still above their ST support levels. A drop below, however, could make the trader’s reverse course. This does set the stage for a healthy stock picker’s market. While risk-averse investors continue to shy away from binary events, many stocks at these prices are being handsomely rewarded when good news occurs (see Whitepaper below).
