Resultado de las subastas de las Letras del Tesoro, Agosto 2007

Cuando te has salido a tiempo!

¿Se está huyendo de la bolsa?

La crisis del mercado hipotecario USA ha golpeado Europa. Los títulos financieros del DAX han sufrido en los últimos días bajadas importantes de su cotización, porque han financiado dichas hipotecas basura estadounidenses. El inversor sigue con la incertidumbre sobre el alcance del daño al que está sometido, ya que las entidades financieras no son transparentes o no pueden valorar la situación. LA NOVEDAD DE HOY es que si nos fijamos en las caídas de los valores del DAX, observaremos que son protagonizadas por la empresas que mejor comportamiento tuvieron el año pasado, Es decir, creo que pueden haberse contagiado y que se está comenzando a retirar dinero del mercado de renta variable. Todos hablan de que se trata de una corrección saludable, no se escucha la posibilidad de un crash. Seré el primero en utilizar la palabra crash. Creo que la posibilidad de un crash es latente. Acabo de escuchar ahora mismo desde Estados Unidos que existe un Hedge fonds con problemas, los Hedge-fonds necesitan de créditos para sobrevivir, créditos que ya no recibirán como lo ha sido hasta ahora (contracción del crédito). Al inversor particular le diría que se olvide de todo producto de ingeniería financiera, que una gran posición en liquidez parece ser lo adecuado con respecto a los tiempos que corren, pero por favor no me compren títulos ABS o similares.

Los crash forman parte de la bolsa, y no podemos apelar a la razón de los inversores a que permanezcan inquietos mientras pierden dinero. No lo han hecho nunca, de lo no contrario no hubiera habido crashes.

Un saludo
Valentin

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity—and I'm not sure about the universe.”
Albert Einstein

Creo que tienes razón.

Esperemos a ver qué pasa si salta también en España.

El fondo de garantía garantiza el principal pero no los intereses.

THE FED: St. Louis Fed Chief Poole's Comments Could Be Wishful Thinking

By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) -- The latest comments from St. Louis Fed president William Poole that the Federal Reserve would only cut interest rates based on macroeconomic evidence of a slowdown could be little more than wishful thinking, Fed watchers said Thursday.

"Officials would like to see their decisions determined primarily by macroeconomic developments, but the Fed has a safety and soundness responsibility," said Mike Moran, chief U.S. economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc.

As a result, "at some point they would have to react to market developments even without evidence of a macroeconomic slowdown," he added.

With financial markets in turmoil, talk has surfaced in recent days that Fed policymakers might informally convene a conference call to discuss the possibility of lowering U.S. interest rates.

"They would definitely prefer" to wait for a formal meeting, said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet on Sept. 18, followed by meetings on Oct. 30-31 and on Dec. 11. Fed watchers have started to pencil in a rate cut at the October meeting, although some said the central bank may not wait that long.

"We are rapidly moving toward a situation where they maybe have to choose between sticking with their previous inclination and wait until their Sept. 18 meeting and risking serious damage to the economy," Hatzius said.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, Poole said he wanted to see some "real evidence" that the subprime mortgage mess is affecting the real economy before making any decision on interest rates.

Poole, a voting member of the FOMC this year, also said only a "calamity" would justify an interest-rate cut at the moment.

At the same time, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson told The Wall Street Journal that the economy was unlikely to go into a recession as a result of the turmoil.

'What color is the sky on your planet?'

Some observers on Wall Street reacted with incredulity to the statements.

"Even in the face of all of this, you have the Treasury Secretary and Fed Governors saying this isn't a crisis and the Fed should not ease. To this I say, what color is the sky on your planet?" said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income at Morgan Keegan & Co.

"Everyday, liquidity is being sucked from the market as quickly as the Fed can provide it. That isn't a red flag?" Giddis asked.

"It was kind of a gratuitous slap at the market," said Ken Mayland, president of Clearview Economics.

Hatzius said Poole's comments underscore that the "hurdle is pretty high" for a quick rate cut.

"It doesn't mean the hurdle is insurmountable because financial conditions do matter," Hatzius said.

"But it would be much easier for them to cut interest rates if they had a piece of data to hang their hat on," he added.

Moreover, Hatzius said the use of the word "calamity" was unfortunate.

"The calamity image basically tells markets it is safe to sell risky assets until you see a significantly larger amount of pain, and I think that is what we're seeing in the markets today," Hatzius said.

At their meeting last week, the FOMC acknowledged the downside risk from the turmoil in financial markets but stuck with their inflation-fighting bias.

"Although the downside risks to growth have increased somewhat, the FOMC's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected," the panel said in a statement following the meeting behind closed doors

Hatzius said the FOMC should have moved to a neutral bias last week.

"It would be seen as much less of a climbdown to now, if needed, come in and cut interest rates," he said.

Mayland said he gue

Tienes más razón que un santo. Lo único es que si ahora bajan los tipos, se va a la mierda todo, lo ficticio y lo real.

No se quien contesta a quien exactamente pero doy mi opinion o comentario.
Poole gobernador del FED no representa totalmente el criterio de la FED de hecho en Washington su opinión es la menos importante de los miembros gobernadores del FED.
No obstante el FEd no suele históricamente intervenir basado en las condiciones del mercado que deben y son bastantes libres. El flujo y sentimiento del mercado está fuera del control del FED
El FEd atiende la situación economica como en este caso dando liquidez que como habeis visto no ha influido positivamente en el mercado siguiendo la volatibilidad absoluta (hoy ha caido y luego recuperado un 3%) en horas.
El FED no actua en temas de la bolsa y sus oscilaciones. Por ley no puede y debe hacerlo aunque como indicais hay realidades humanas y el tema no pasa desapercibido. Greenspan era inflexible en esto y Bernanke tambien aunque obviamente un comentario optimista puede mover el mercado ansioso de buenas noticias.
El problema actual se escapa del control de los bancos centrales Es panico, irracionalidad, locura etc propio de una entidad muy humana como es la bolsa.
Maravillosa correccion antes de entrar cosa que me planteo seriamente ya pero poco a poco. El sector financiero esta muy apetecible de verdad
Juan Ma

Curiosamente, el sector financiero que es quien supuestamente debiera recibir los palos más fuertes, hoy se ha comportado con una energía inesperada. De hecho tenía puesta una orden de compra en WFC (a la baja) y se ha ido para arriba un 5,45%. Ahí es nada. Pero es que no ha sido el unico banco con este comportamiento.

Salu2