The mortality rate is only half of the equation. The other half is how contagious it is. Preliminary results show that it is between 2x - 4x more contagious than normal flu, and it is 20x - 40x more deadly than flu. Because contagion is an exponential growth, even a slight increase in the rate will have a huge impact. Each person who catches flu infects about 1.3 more people. Each person who has COVID-19 infects about 2.4 people (low end estimate). In contrast, while ebola is very deadly, it spreads about half as slowly as HIV.
So combining the mortality rate with the contagiousness, you can have a very problematic pandemic.
The 61,099 flu-related deaths in the U.S. during the severe flu season of 2017-2018 amounted to 0.14% of the estimated 44.8 million cases of influenza-like illness. There were also an estimated flu-related 808,129 hospitalizations, for a rate of 1.8%. Assume a Covid-19 outbreak of similar size in the U.S., multiply the death and hospitalization estimates by five or 10, and you get some really scary numbers: 300,000 to 600,000 deaths, and 4 million to 8 million hospitalizations in a country that has 924,107 staffed hospital beds. Multiply by 40 and, well, forget about it. Also, death rates would go higher if the hospital system is overwhelmed, as happened in the Chinese province of Hubei where Covid-19’s spread began and seems to be happening in Iran now. That’s one reason that slowing the spread is important even if it turns out the disease can’t be stopped.
Lo que me aterra es la progresión del virus. En Italia ya está colapsando el sistema sanitario y la tasa de mortalidad yasube del 4%. Pero Francia y España van detrás....siguiendo la progresión actual de contagios en poco más de una semana estaremos igual de jodidos que Italia. No sé a que webos esperan a tomar medidas draconianas ya! Se van a llenar las morgues de toda europa :(
Mientras en España juegan con fuego permitiendo las Fallas en Valencia.
Mis mensajes van de especulación y trading de corto plazo.
#182624
Re: Pulso de Mercado: Intradía
Las dictaduras no son buenas nunca, y no voy a defender la de Franco , pero no todo fue tan malo antes ni es tan bueno ahora , es lo que quise decir. Si os ha molestado el comentario lo siento , no era mi intención molestar a nadie .
