Un poco de bolsa ficcion para un sabado por la mañana,
( el tercer párrafo mentiria si dijera que no he pensado algo similar o incluso exactamente igual )
http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/;_ylt=Aipo7HWahLuHz8uXZMDVy6HeAohG;_ylu=X3oDMTB2ODlnNzgyBHBvcwMyMQRzZWMDTWVkaWFNc2dCb2FyZHNYSFJVbHQ-;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3?&bn=4cc3b79a-3ac0-3136-b6ba-55e126a7836d&tid=1424395541340-410dc2c5-076c-49da-8c61-1e5009572462
It's very easy to see how NVAX will be acquired in 12-18 months. But, what I can't figure out is how some big pharma could acquire NVAX without facing very stiff competition from other bidders. I don't need to be a biotech expert to recognize that NVAX's tech must be capable of tackling many more unmet medical needs. The only thing stopping NVAX is the scarcity of funds to go hunting after other viruses. But, a buyer with deep pockets could easily do it.
It's hard to believe that some big pharma would make NVAX an offer, and other big pharmas would yawn and show no interest. Bidding war must be in the cards. That's why I believe there will be a bidding war. I
think AZN is the most likely one to win it.
A bidding war is the reason I expect NVAX to get $30 instead of $20, if sold this year. I suspect the recent rise to near $10 will continue steadily till we hit $16, which could be by mid-year. I don't think this is arbitrary hype or momentum. I think it's deliberate, and orchestrated by large institutions (obviously). Institutions are doing it to send a signal to interested buyers that they would have to fork out 50%-100% over the upcoming market price of $16, which would be $24-$32.
I'm glad you agree with me on the timeline. I hope you also agree on the price. If I couldn't get around $24, I wouldn't be happy with the sale. In that case, I'd rather NVAX didn't get sold.
NVAX.