Re: Farmas USA
estos son una serie de post que he recopilado de un tal jfk123_1 en relacion a SNTA y un posible planteamiento de dilucion asi como de partnership que he considerado interesantes. Aunque solo son opiniones, ojo.
Aqui los dejo para el que le pueda interesar su lectura.
"Expect coverage initiation from UBS after the recent meeting with management. Brean meets tomorrow evening with management, so could see some action in shares/new research in the aftermath.
UBS meeting is interesting. Kovner could be looking to take private with Coxton, although UBS could be courted so as to push through the 300m shelf registration later this year. In order to work the shelf registration to UBS's very wide distribution base, UBS would have to launch proper coverage first. This would of course be good for Synta, as it would bring in a bulge bracket investment bank and the associated clout and services. Synta would probably want to execute on some or all of the shelf off the back of a major rise in shares. So if UBS is brought in and launches coverage, expect them to slap a bullish recommendation with a high price target in line with Roth and Jefferies. This would let the shares run, get Synta the money it needs, and give UBS some decent comms and primary income."
"Also, I believe some of the institutional investors were dumping in the second calendar quarter, even before the Galaxy 1 mixed update hit the shares. It would appear that Kovner and Caxton and some insiders were buying the shares being offloaded by some of the institutions. Bringing in UBS would help things a lot, because with their distribution and analyst coverage, they could broker, off the market, trades between institutions looking to exit and institutions who could buy in...I would suspect that some of this institutional selling which started around the 10ish level was amplified by the shelf registration. The ability to tap deeper institutional players is what UBS brings to the table, keeping shares from swapping in the traded market and keeping the share price from tanking whenever an institution sells out and Kovner doesn't buy....... "
"Also, Kovner bought 40m USD worth at 8.60 last December. So you have an idea of what his cost basis, calculus will be."
"Gut feeling is that if the shelf looks like it is going to be filled poorly/too dilutive (price only around 7), then they might take it private and finance through Phase 3/FDA approval next year. The drug is expected to start selling in 1Q fiscal, so Kovner and Coxton would only have to inject about 40m to get the operations to a point where sales drive cash positive. Remember, the drug pipeline is 100% owned by Synta, which is valuable and rare in biotech. But if financing can be done above 10 - especially if a good partnership with upfront cash contribution is struck, I think they will let the company ride publicly until cash flow positive in 2015. Of note, Kovner has been buying loads anywhere south of 7, so if a shelf related financing is done at a normal 5% discount, he must be expecting the shares to trade minimum of 8 a share with perhaps 100m raised at most. Otherwise he would be diluting himself at time of purchase. So I would expect the shares to be north of 10 soon"
"They need the partnership also for distribution of the drug. Synta has no sales reps. Partner needed more for commercialisation than just financing phase 3 and money for 2014. I believe that if a good partner deal is done, then the shares will really ramp - independent of the share ownership mechanics (squeeze, etc.), as it will validate the technology and will fill in the last missing piece of the puzzle."
SNTA
