Muy buen post en IV de Dirty Harry sobre encontrar acciones que tocan fondo tras una buena subida anterior:
Looking for Opportunity in a chart
The board has been very quiet of late and that has been hard for me to understand. The opportunities have been abundant from my viewpoint and I can only assume folks are concerned about the volatility of the markets currently.
Despite living in my 7th decade on this Rock, and moving from one state to another, I have had a stellar month so I'm going to share a bit of how I search for opportunities in scary markets. It is no secret that I expect this 4th Quarter to be a bad one but that matters not. Right now, the markets are still providing opportunities for profitable trading and you have to play the hand you are dealt as a "trader".
In times like these, I like to look for stocks that have recently been beaten up a bit but are far from broken. In recent weeks, I've been starting to play CRBU again and the chart is starting to shape up, imo, for some trading opportunities in the near term future.
The recent IPO euphoria took CRBU to a quick double in just 6 weeks, topping out around $33 in early Sept. What goes up comes down in the stock market and CRBU has since fallen back to a low just under $20 earlier last month. This is where I like to watch the action. There is a process for stocks setting new lows and then changing direction and while one size does not fit all, the patterns repeat themselves again and again.
As a low is being set, there is usually some form of what I call capitulation selling. This is where the die hard fans finally give up, dump their shares and move on to greener pastures. This is manifested by larger volume dumping as the price is driven to the lows. Note the big red candle on Oct 8 in the chart below ... that was the final bail out, with above average volume and a big hit to the price.
After the capitulation selling, I look for the first rally attempt. It usually fails, but not always, and then the recent low is tested either by breaking and setting a new one close to the first or by stopping just short and then resuming the upward climb. Note here that CRBU climbed from around $19 to $23 before failing. Of particular interest to me is the volume from Oct 11 until current ... it has remained very low and below average the entire time. This confirms the sellers are finished and left the premises, leaving shares in the hands of new owners. They are not likely to sell at these prices, barring bad news of some kind.
After the test of the low was successful, at just under $20, CRBU made the 2nd run to near $24 before pulling back to catch it's breath. But this pullback was on extremely low volumeand the close each day since has remained above the 13 day EMA line. This is very bullish behavior for a chart. And CRBU has now established the most bullish trend I have found over the years ... higher lows and higher highs since the low was set back on Oct 8.
CRBU may not be a volcano waiting to erupt but it is a bullish chart that should provide a lower risk entry in a volatile market environment and I have taken my position in CRBU, both as a trade and in retirement accounts. As always, do you own due diligence. But from a technical viewpoint, this is a high percentage play, imo.
reconozco que cuando re-entre en NVAX a 144 puse la mira en los 200 porque la MM50 y MM200 diarias estaban muy cercanas entre si y supondrian un muro a tener en cuenta... ademas que era el cierre del gap. Mi venta el otro dia en 166 en premarket tras lo de Indonesia no tuvo otra razon que tomar pluses para reengancharme si cerraba el gap en los 152-153... cosa que hizo... y ahora no consigo recordar donde estaba o que estaba haciendo cuando eso sucedió 🙈... pero el caso es que no me re-enganche. Hoy al volver a casa me conecte un momento a ver como iban las cosas y vi que me daba entrada por MACD 5min y estocastico 15 min cuando la cosa andaba por los 180-182... pero no le di a comprar tampoco, apague el broker y me puse a jugar con los crios.
si esto no es desgana no se como llamarlo 🤣 me lo tendre que hacer mirar...
edito: si mañana rompe la mm50 y mm200 diarias a la vez ya seria para ponerle medallita extra a Stan
CRBU Yo de esta voy muy cargada. Me da un poco igual el precio a corto plazo, aquí es para mi una inversión a largo plazo. (Ahora la llevo en +10% la media) Claro que cayo la cotización, el seller numero 1 fue ARK que se deshizo del millón de acciones que compro al IPO en poco más de un mes. Por otro lado, los que la pensáis tradearla, tened en mente la fecha del lock up que es el 19 de enero.
