TRIL
Se ha ido hasta $13.5 en el after y luego ha recuperado hasta $14.7. La he perseguido un poco y dejado la orden en $14.2 pero no entró... Aún tengo que estudiar algo más la empresa, pero de momento...
En la última actualización han dicho que va a haber cierto retraso en los estudios por el covid, por eso la bajada de ayer.
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Documento visto en Twitter (que traigo desde IV):
enlace.
La última presentación:
enlace.
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Hay mucha gente siguiendo TRIL en biotwitter. Este la sigue bastante (y FATE, que vaya subida ayer, no tenía que haberla vendido por completo, es un error vender las empresas buenas aunque estén aparentemente caras):
enlace.
Comparación entre TRIL y ALXO:
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Y un comentario sobre una gráfica que resulta intrigante:
enlace.
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Y el análisis que le hizo el otro día b2k que se ha subido al carro también esta semana (Valuación:
$20.81):
I honestly think the CD47 don't eat me signal for Macrophages could be as big as the PD1 for T cells. I put on a starter position in TRIL. Its probably one of the the 2 independent companies in this space. The data is good and I am working to get to know the management. I plan to add some ALXO once its goes off lock up in January. I picked up my first buy at $17.24 and put in a bid for the rest of my 1.5% core position at $15.15.
Sometimes its about timing. I loved FTSV, but it got bought out on me. I didn't get the TRIL story as their TTI-621 has robust efficacy, but a lot of tox with platelets. It took someone who was willing to talk science with me. I finally understand the differences. The more activity of the Fc domain, the better the efficacy, but the higher the tox. First it TTI-621 with and IgG1 Fc domain. For TTI-621, they have robust activity and higher tox. That is really good for patients who can tolerate it. Then there is the IgG4 domain Fc drugs with FTSV and TTI-622. They have a little less efficacy, but better safety profiles. Then comes ALXO. They have a completely inert Fc receptor. That makes it really safe even in 4 drug combos, but the efficacy in single agent is nearly non existent. It comes down to options for patients and doctors. That made sense to me. I like the CD47 as the next possible major checkpoint. I just had to find the right way to play it. I picked up some TRIL and plan to pick up some ALXO once its past the lock up.
TRIL updated In Depth
Management Assessment
Jan Skvarka – I don't know him at all yet. It will take time to ensure this management is strong or not.
5 Star Rating
Management – 3 stars
Science – 3 stars
Potential – 5 stars
Valuation – 5 stars
Balance Sheet – 4 stars
Potential
TTI-621
Lymphoma:
Estimated 77,000 new cases in US each year
Relapse rate is 50% = 38,500
Give them 20% market share = 7,700
@ $100,000 price = $770 million
Solid Tumors:
I would estimate at least $1 billion sales in solid tumors
TTI-622
Multiple Myeloma:
Estimate 32,000 patients in US each year
Give them 20% market share = 6,400
@ $100,000 price = $640 million
Lymphoma:
Estimated 77,000 new cases in US each year
Relapse rate is 50% = 38,500
Give them 20% market share = 7,700
@ $100,000 price = $770 million
Solid Tumors:
I would estimate at least $1 billion sales in solid tumors
Total Sales and Royalties = $4.18 billion
Valuation
TTI-621
Lymphoma = $770 million * 1 for phase 1 data = $770 million value
Solid Tumors = $1 billion * 10% for early phase 1 = $100 million value
TTI-622
Multiple Myeloma = $640 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $64 million value
Lymphoma = $770 million * 1 for early phase 1 = $770 million value
Solid Tumors = $1 billion * $10% for early phase 1 = $100 million value
Cash = $292 million
Total Valuation = $2.096 billion @ 100,710,000 Shares Outstanding = $20.81
Balance Sheet
Cash - $292 million
Debt - $0
Cash Burn - $100 million
More than 2 years cash
