Re: Farmas USA
Dejo aqui ( no estoy seguro si ya lo hice en su momento ), el post de un usano que me consta de hace tiempo su conocimiento en THLD. Eso si, de lo que aqui afirma o conjetura yo no digo nada.
PC - Pancreas
STS - Sarcoma
EV - evofosfamide
Picasso - el estudio de ZIOP
Fair Value of THLD
The value of THLD solely depends on the success probability of Phase 3 STS and Phase 3 PC, which are due in about two months. Whether these two Phase 3 will succeed is not affected by global market slow down, not influenced by interest rate hike, and has nothing to do with someone’s comments…..
The enterprise value (EV) for a successful STS first-line cancer drug conservatively is 1 billion dollar. Let us say, 0.7 billion dollar (for the simplicity of calculation), with current ~70 million shares outstanding, means $10/share.
The EV for a successful PC first-line cancer drug (more patients, ~120,000 new cases per year US&EU) is at least 2 billion dollars. Let us say, 1.4 billion dollar, with current ~70 million shares outstanding, means $20/share.
If both of them succeed, the implied EV from other indications (lung cancer, MM…) could add up quickly to another 2 billion dollars (Share price is forward looking…).
Basing on the science behind of TH302, its phase2 (90 patients) data, control arm of phase 3 EORTC 62012 and PICASSO, and the control arm of Lilly’s recent Phase 2 STS trail, the odd of Phase 3 STS success, conservatively, is about 60%.
Phase 3 PC has slight higher odd, ~70%, basing on its well-run phase 2 data.
Here is my simple math for current share price (without considering other potential indications):
The probability of success in both STS and PC: 60%*70%= 42%
The probability of success in STS and fail in PC: 60%*(1-70%)= 18%
The probability of fail in STS and success in PC: (1-60%)*70%= 28%
The probability of fail in both STS and PC: (1-60%)*(1-70%)= 12%
Fair share price before data readout upon the above assumptions:
$30*42% + $10*18%+ $20*28% +$0*12%
= $12.6 +1.8 + 5.6 = $20
Just my humble opinion;
I personally do not think that efficient market theory can be applied with small biotech firms
