España
Pienso mas en lo economico de esta fusion que en lo politico. La verdad es como si dijeramos que el R.Madrid pasa a fusionarse con el Barça y compitieran en la liga como un unico equipo. Es una fusion muy extraña y debe haber algo que se esta ocultando bastante grave como para que lancen esta idea
Haré un copia pega de un informe de Morgan Stanley a principios de noviembre donde deja patente el camino a seguir y que en el tiempo se ha cumplido casi a la perfección:
November 8, 2011
Spanish Banks
Investment Case
The core Spanish banks have now ended their reporting
season (SAN, BBVA, CABK, POP, BTO, SAB and BKT). Q3
results uncovered a higher deterioration in fundamentals in the
domestic businesses than we anticipated. Revenues came in
broadly in-line with our expectations, but NPL formation picked
up, which anticipates an increase in specific provisioning in
2012. We reduce our estimates on average by 12% for the
domestic banks in 2012, and our estimates are now on average
~40% below consensus.
Our numbers on SAN and BBVA are unchanged, as they were
already updated on the day of the results.
We are increasing our provisioning estimates by 8% in 2012.
This is consistent with specific provisioning up close to 15%
yoy, however, reported provisioning charges will increase less
due to the intensive use of generic provisions at CABK, SAB. In
the case of POP (as stated by the company) the increase will
be channelled via the write-downs anticipated against equity
when the merger with PAS is completed.
BBVA remains our top pick
Spanish banks have outperformed the banking index by 11% in
the last three months, however, we expect domestic banks to
underperform into 2012 as macro headwinds materialize.
Earnings visibility is probably at its lowest into 2012, with the
term funding markets shut, and competition for deposits could
intensify again. Additionally we expect deleveraging trends to
continue, which would put further pressure on pre-provision
profits. Given we expect a mild recession in 1H2012 and
coverage is now down to 49%, we believe the risk of losses
being reported next year is the highest in this cycle. Possible
plans by the new government (reported by El Pais, 6 November
2011) to create a “bad bank” would accelerate potential capital
requirements, and also trigger M&A, in our view.
BBVA remains our top pick due to its higher earnings resilience
in Spain (NPL entry was down in 3Q11) and the growth coming
from Latam. BBVA is trading on 1x P/TBV 2012E, vs. a ROTE
of 15%. We have an Underweight on BTO, SAB, and BKT.
We have reduced our target prices by an average ~12% for the
domestic banks, in-line with cuts to our forecasts, and there is
now 5-41% downside in our Underweight recommendations.
We estimate domestic banks’ ROTE will be down to 4.6% in
2012 vs. 5.8% in 2011, vs. an average 0.6x P/TBV 2012E. SAB
and POP would be the least profitable at 3%, and 3.7%.
La apuesta ha sido BBVA claramente, sin embargo BANKIA ni se analiza por su falta de claridad en las cuentas.
¿quien la comprara o fusionara? me parece indiferente si uno busca invertir y no especular.
saludos
