Otra vez nos acercamos al techo de deuda de los EUA. Dicho de otra manera, nos acercamos al límite legal del gobierno para asumir más deuda, alcanzar EUA el límite de su tarjeta de crédito soberana, y esto podría ocurrir a inicios de 2013.
November 6, 2012. Last Wednesday, the Treasury department has notified that by the end of the year, the debt limit is to be reached again. The debt ceiling is at $16.4 trillion and it is expected that through the use of its funds, the debt limit will not be seen until early 2013. The treasury department has said that it would not default on its obligations and considering the political environment in Washington, any downgrade will be mainly ignored or taken with little consequence so a downgrade is not expected either. Many experts believe that teh US is still an A+ country and that the downgrade, even though it follows the letter of the law but fails to take ‘spirit’ into account. - The US Debt Ceiling and Presidential Election 2012
Si no ponen las cosas bajo control, la calificadora Fitch le podría hacer una degradación crediticia. Actualmente tiene AAA con perspectivas futuras negativas.
Nov 07 - The economic policy challenge facing the President is to put in place a credible deficit-reduction plan necessary to underpin economic recovery and confidence in the full faith and credit of the US. Resolution of these fiscal policy choices would likely result in the US retaining its 'AAA' status from Fitch. As reflected in the Negative Outlook on the rating, failure to avoid the fiscal cliff and raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner as well as securing agreement on credible deficit reduction would likely result in a rating downgrade in 2013.(...) Fitch is currently projecting substantial deficit reduction equivalent to around 1.5% of GDP in 2013 as part of a medium-term deficit reduction strategy. (...) Federal debt held by the public currently stands at around 75% of GDP, its highest level since 1950. Without policy action, it will reach 90% of GDP by the end of the decade and continue to rise towards unsustainable levels. Assuming that the fiscal cliff is avoided and there is a timely increase in the debt ceiling, Fitch expects to resolve the Negative Outlook on the US 'AAA' sovereign rating in late 2013. Failure to reach agreement on the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling would likely trigger a rating downgrade before then. - TEXT-Fitch:No Fiscal honeymoon for president Obama
Para arreglar el problema según Fitch, EUA tendría que subir el techo de deuda y tomar medidas duras para reducir el déficit de mediano plazo. Para reducir el déficit tendría que hacer alguna de las dos o las dos cosas:
- Reducir gastos: Austeridad. El problema es que el gasto público es una válvula de liquidez para la economía, y la austeridad cierra la válcula y empuja a una recesión y aumento del desempleo.
- Aumentar ingresos fiscales: Esto se logra cobrando impuestos. Sólo se le puede cobrar a los ricos o a los pobres. ¿A quien le cobrarán?
Durante la campaña de Obama y Romney, de lo único que hablaban era sobre maneras ideológicamente incompatibles de producir déficit. Pero ahora la realidad anuncia otra cosa. ¿Entrará EUA en recesión de nuevo? ¿Habrá degradación crediticia? ¿Podrá EUA pagar la nueva guerra fría no declarada que existe en la actualidad?
