Allied Irish pasó los stress tests

Esta noticia me ha dejado totalmente sorprendido. ¿Cómo puede el Allied Irish Bank pasar los stress tests el 23 de julio de 2010 y requerir un rescate de 3.000.000.000 (Sí tres mil millones) de euros dos meses más tarde?

Al parecer Joaquín Almunia va a tener que responder a la pregunta.

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Alan Kelly demands answer drom Europe on AIB
Issued : Sunday 17 October, 2010

Labour MEP, Alan Kelly, will be writing to EU Competition Commissioner, Jauquin Almunia, to ascertain why the Commission gave Allied Irish Bank the all clear in July, only for the bank to require further billions earlier this month.

"This is a question we must simply get to the bottom of. On July 23rd, the European Commission stated that Allied Irish Bank would no longer require any more of the Irish taxpayer's money as it was strong enough to survive the 'stress test' they put on the bank.

"However less than three months later, Brian Lenihan announced that he would be allocating approximately three thousand million euro of future Irish pension funding to keep AIB capitalised. The institution now is all but nationalised but was given a clean bill of health barely three months before. It is questionable whether the bank will ever be in a position to re-pay the Irish taxpayer.

"The failure of Europe to anticipate this development is very concerning. We are at the stage now where we are relying on Europe to get us through these banking difficulties and we as a country need them to see through the spin being created by both the bankers and the government.

"We have already seen the Commission thwart the government's plans for Anglo Irish Bank, because they were nonsense. They have played a critical role in keeping Ireland a credible country on financial markets.

"However, the fact that AIB passed the stress test by the Commission raises many questions.

1. Was the bank giving the government and the Commission truly accurate assessments of its projected losses? What kind of tests were applied to AIB's loan books? For example, did they factor in this any projected NAMA discounts to the AIB loan book which should have been known?
2. Was the Commission's stress test really a stress test or was it designed to inject some positive sentiment in the European markets?
3. With the Irish taxpayer already being bled dry by the banks, can the Commission be certain that no further capital will be required? Will they publish detailed assessments of how they came to their conclusions?

"The Irish people need answers to these questions. We are at the stage where we are relying on Europe even more so than the Irish government to get us out of this mess and clear communication from Europe is essential.

"If it is the case that the Commission were presented with an overly optimistic set of figures from the banks, then they failed in their duty to critically analyse them. Furthermore, a significant haircut from NAMA loans should have been easy to predict and been factored in to their decision. In time it has proven to be the wrong decision and the taxpayers are paying again.

"The Commission has a case to answer and I intend to pursue it with them."

http://www.labour.ie/press/listing/128730397649591912.html
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¿Nos estamos dirigiendo a la fase 2 de la crisis bancaria?
En USA muchos piensan que la crisis de las "foreclosures" se va a llevar por delante a Bank of America y HSBC junto a otros muchos.
En España los bancos están siendo machacados en bolsa esta semana.

Pues pq los test de stress son un camelo. Para pasarlos sólo fue necesario demostrar que tu TIER 1 (ratio que está compuesto por el capital básico, formado principalmente de acciones ordinarias y utilidades no distribuidas y que supuestamente es la relación entre el capital social de un banco con el total de sus activos ponderados por riesgo), superaba un número. Pero claro, ¿cómo se calculan estos activos ponderados por riesgo...? Con mucha imaginación. Fíjate si le ponen imaginanción que si no recuerdo mal los principales bancos españoles en el escenario tensionado en donde el PIB caía en 2011 un 2,8% más de lo que ya cayó en el 2009 es decir en torno al 6,5% acumulado no variaban casi su TIER estando tanto en el Santander como en el BBVA en torno al 11%. Aquí puedes ver una tabla con las TIER 1 de los bancos españoles con los escenarios hipotéticos: http://www.periodismoindependiente.es/economia/resultados-de-los-estres-test/

Si bueno, pero una cosa es que fueran un camelo y otra que uno de los bancos que los pasaron requiera un rescate de 3 mil millones de euros solo dos meses más tarde.

Es que este banco no es que se haya hundido por un stress que debiera haber soportado, es que estaba naufragando cuando lo analizaron, y no detectaron nada.

Pero la banca española esta siendo machacada a base de noticias, la de USA no necesita a la prensa porque ya tiene a sus propios gestores para arruinarla.

S2