...Según The Economist. Os copio este interesante artículo, que va al grano de lo que preguntaba Dinapoli, porque es de acceso restringido solo a suscriptores de la revista:
A hung market
Oct 28th 2004 | WASHINGTON
Stockmarkets fear no result in the presidential election
WALL Street has traditionally greeted presidential elections with a yawn. With a few exceptions —such as Harry Truman's surprise victory in 1948, which sent the S&P 500 tumbling almost four percent in one day—America's elections generally have a scant short-term impact on financial markets. In ten out of 14 presidential elections since the second world war, the S&P 500 moved less than 1% on the day after polling.
This year might be different. A clear victory on November 2nd, whether for John Kerry or George Bush, might provide a big —if brief— boost to the stockmarket and the dollar. The reason? A winner, any winner, is better than no winner at all. And America's financial markets are uneasy that the election may yield another messy, drawn-out legal battle for president. Along with high oil prices and flagging corporate profits, the risk of electoral quagmire is dampening enthusiasm for stocks and for the dollar.
After Florida's close result in 2000, it took 36 days of legal battles before Mr Bush was declared president by the Supreme Court. The ingredients for a repeat, or worse, are all there this year. The electorate is closely divided; partisan rancour is rife; and each side has armies of lawyers to file suits at the slightest irregularity.
There are already court battles over how to deal with provisional and absentee ballots, and accusations of voter fraud and intimidation. One top Republican has told his supporters that Florida 2000 could be repeated in at least six states. Bets taken on Tradesports.com, an on-line betting firm, suggest a one-in-five chance that the presidential election will not be decided even by December 13th, six weeks after polling day.
Though Wall Street shrugged off the Florida fiasco, it may blanche at a repeat. America has never had two contested presidential elections in a row. The last contested election before 2000 was in 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes was declared president months after election day. A second consecutive legal battle for the presidency would bring short-term uncertainty, and might erode Americans' faith in the legitimacy of their voting system at a time when America's economic fundamentals are already looking ropy.
Given all this, it is little wonder that analysts are hoping for a “relief rally” if the result is clear. Conventional wisdom on Wall Street holds that a Bush-win rally would be bigger, partly because Mr Bush has slashed dividend and capital gains tax rates, while Mr Kerry may try to raise them. History, however, suggests caution. While stockmarkets do slightly better on the day after elections when Republicans win, Democratic presidencies are generally better for stocks. So if you are convinced of a Kerry victory, buy now—and hold. Unless, of course, you think that neither president will be able to do much about America's economic problems.
